Who wants sheep quota?
By James Campbell
Numbers of cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry have fallen on Northern Ireland farms and the area under cereals this year was also down on 1998 levels. The total number of farm businesses dropped by 2 per cent with 3 per cent fewer farmers and farm workers.
The clear decline across practically all farm enterprises, which reflects the dire state of the industry, is evident in the June 1999 farm census results released this week (see page 4).
By June the Northern Ireland pig sector had already shrunk by 25 per cent compared to the previous June with the number of farms with pigs having dropped by almost half. The sow herd was down by 30 per cent. With some of the biggest pig units now destocking after the setbacks of the past month, the scale of the decimation of the pig business by the year end will be even more devastating.
The number of beef cows in June was down by 4 per cent and the breeding ewe flock was down by 3 per cent. These falls are currently being reflected in the market for suckler cow and sheep annual premium quota entitlements. Sheep quota has been leased for £1 per ewe and can be bought at around £5. Suckler cow quota is being offered for lease at around £50 per cow but supply is exceeding demand. Sales of suckler quota are taking place at £200 to £230 per unit.
With the change in rules next year which will allow suckler cow premium (SCP) to be claimed on up to 20 per cent maiden heifers in each claim, it is expected that demand for this quota should remain reasonably firm. However the Department of Agriculture has indicated that suckler farmers who have already sent in their 1999 claim for SCP cannot move now to purchase additional suckler quota in the market this year.
Beef prices lift
The positive spin-off of lower numbers as cattle go into winter housing is evident this week in quoted prices at the Northern Ireland meat plants which have improved by a couple of pence per kg carcase weight. There is reasonable hope of further price rises throughout November.
Another positive feature of beef market is the rapid decline in intervention stores of beef.
Despite these improvements, beef finishers should be wary of paying higher prices for stores. This pre-Christmas lift in prices may well be aide by the current wave consumer support for British beef fuelled by the media campaign against the French ban on UK supplies. It cannot be guaranteed to persist into next year.