Sheep: to stay or go - decision time again

By Andrew Kinsella

This year gave the best mid-season lambing conditions ever and yet many people are still thinking of getting out of sheep. In this regard it was surprising that the 2003 ewe premium applications showed little change in ewe numbers applied on, compared to the previous year, while CSO data for last December showed ewe numbers to be still falling (2% down compared to 2002)

Over the past 10 years, ewe numbers have fallen by nearly 25%, and FAPPRI Ireland predict that numbers are likely to fall by about another 20% over the next 10 years. On the positive side, prices are predicted to increase. This then begs the question of who will get out of and who will stay with sheep? Labour is still the big issue, particularly in the context of part-time farmers.

Part-time farmers are likely to rationalise and concentrate on a single enterprise. In the majority of cases, cattle will be the main enterprise. Presently, 37% of flocks have less than 50 ewes. There will undoubtedly be pressure on many of these to get out following the MTR, if decoupling is adopted as proposed. Also some of the bigger intensively stocked, all-sheep farms are likely to reduce numbers somewhat in order to farm with less pressure.

Excluding premium

Should decoupling occur as proposed, then ewe income will largely be determined by lamb price multiplied by the number lambs produced. When you go away from subsidies, animal performance becomes more important. Basically, subsidies provide a buffer where the costs of production are greater than the returns realised.

Producers weaning 1.2 lambs per ewe achieved gross margins of around €40/ewe without premium during 2002. This is the margin remaining to cover fixed costs and to give a return for own labour. Some of the fixed costs will have already been committed (building and machinery depreciation, interest on farm loans, etc.) but there are others that are committed annually (rented land, machinery operating costs, etc).

In the new scenario, lowland producers with flocks weaning less than 1.2 lambs/ewe will have to give serious consideration as to whether it is worthwhile remaining in sheep, particularly if they have a relatively small flock size. Up to 30% of lowland producers are weaning less than 1.2 lambs per ewe. The basic question for these people is "is it worthwhile staying in sheep at current flock performance, to make about €15/ewe for the work that is put in?" In arriving at a decision, people will have to calculate their own margins. This is more important and more difficult where there are other enterprises on the farm. The Teagasc Profit Monitor can be useful in this regard. Contact your local adviser to avail of it.

Breeding policy

In the past few years, an increasing number of farmers have been complaining about poor lamb crops and poor lamb growth rates. The first question I normally ask is what breeding policy you have. Invariably, many just go to the mart and buy hogget ewes without any investigation as to their origin.

In many cases, these hogget ewes are derived from the poorest of ewe lambs retained or purchased the previous autumn and kept as dry hoggets to claim premium. No wonder there is such a wide variation within flocks. It is impossible to improve flock quality and performance by relying on such a replacement strategy.

There are only two options: purchase or breed. Once the premium goes from the ewe, there will be severe pressure on the current "dry hogget" system and less carry-over of these as hogget ewes. Many of the traditional breeders that produced good quality hogget ewes during the 80s are now also gone, with the result that quality replacement stock is likely to be scarcer in the near future.

Breeding own replacements

This is an option for people thinking of reducing flock numbers. Instead of putting 100% of breeding ewes to the ram, they would only breed from 80% and retain 20% ewe lamb replacements that are not put to the ram in their first year. The big advantage of breeding own replacements is that you have total control over planned flock performance and animal quality. Also, with a self-contained flock there is less risk of bringing in diseases such as abortions (enzootic), sheep scab, worm resistance, scrapie, etc.

Decisions will have to be made regarding:

• desired weaning rate: There are replacement rams that will produce progeny with a potential weaning rate that can vary from 1.2 to 2.1. The flock owner has to make the decision as to what is appropriate for his or her situation. If possible, replacement rams should have high LMI (high breeding value) and be of the scrapie-resistant genotype.

• number of replacements required: My experience is that insufficient replacements are generally kept. The very minimum should be 20%, possibly even 23/24% in the case of high-output flocks. There is much less work with a relatively young flock.

• replacement selection: The ideal is to tag and weigh at birth, weigh again at weaning and select those with the highest growth rate (making allowances for singles and twins). During the past few years, due to the higher lamb prices, many producers are selecting in the August/October period from unsold lambs - the poorest.

Purchasing replacements

Always purchase from a reputable source. Purchasing from the same person each year will result in less variation within the flock. Secure lambs early in the season. Investigate the possibility of contract rearing where quality, scrapie-resistant rams are used, as if they were breeding their own replacements. Some producers with later- (April) lambing flocks could easily adapt to produce quality and prolific ewelamb or hogget ewe replacements.

The contents of this article are premeditated on the assumption that decoupling will occur as outlined in the MTR proposals.

One last point: if you are going to stay with sheep, ensure that you have or will have good handling facilities. A topic for another day or two... about the time it takes to put up a decent one.