Strong demand in ‘short' harvest

By Andy Doyle

Feed barley is now making a minimum of €100 per tonne across most of the country as the realisation of a small or ‘short' European and world harvest becomes more evident. Meanwhile, with wheat set to make €10-€12 over barley some end users in the North Leinster area are paying €114 to €115 for green wheat.

Drought continues to depress yield expectations in many parts of the world. Official French statistics put wheat production in 2003 at 29.94 m.t., down 20% on 2002. Maize production is also forecast to be down by 25%, and falling. Total grain production in the Ukraine is now put at 20.3 m.t. compared to 36.3 m.t. in 2002 with most of this difference caused by wheat. Most eastern European countries have been hit by drought and concerns are now being expressed for maize and soya yields in the US.

Green barley prices as high as €101/t are reported but these sometimes include delivery. It is expected that the price in surplus areas like Wexford will be €97-€98/t. In other areas €100/t delivered is expected to be the top-end of the price. However, some buyers are paying €116-€118/t for 16-17% moisture grain for use in the short-term.

Wheat prices seem likely to be €110 or more nationwide. Price in the south is likely to be €112 and may be similar in the northeast.

Oat prices are a bit less certain with barley price generally being the top of the market. Quality is important and ‘average' oats is being quoted at €93-€95/t.

Meanwhile, the IFA has slammed Glanbia's intransigence on green grain prices. The grain committee chairman Paddy Harrington condemned the Glanbia on-account prices of €93 and €102 for barley and wheat respectively. He reminded growers that Glanbia's market-based review only delivered a minimal top-up in four of the past six years.

Dry prices remain buoyant with the spot price of wheat up to €140. Dry feed barley had been trading at €124-€126/t but weakened a little earlier this week - this is likely to be temporary.

Rising EU grain prices have fuelled fears amongst the trade of the re-introduction of export taxes or decreased import duties. The EU management committee had proposed to transfer such decisions to the political arena for resolution this week but following a meeting on Wednesday this now seems very unlikely to happen in the short or long term. This will help reassure the grain trade who have been caught by such measures previously.

Yields variable

The harvest in the south is now virtually wrapped up while in the northern half of Leinster there may have been around 30% remaining in some areas at the start of this.

Yields are variable to disappointing with winter wheat showing huge variability. Yields are generally a bit better in the south where averages may be around 3.5 t/ac. Average yields in the northern end of Leinster may be closer to 3.3 t/ac.

Spring barley yields have been much more satisfactory. The malting crop was excellent with yields generally ranging from 2.5-3.1 t/ac. Average feed barley yields will be lower, with a national average of 2.4 t/ac possible.