Irish pig supplies forecast to fall by 5.9% in 2004

By James Brady

The EU pig forecast group met in Brussels this week to predict pig supplies and prices for the remainder of 2004. There was a more optimistic tone to the meeting, with all countries forecasting a price improvement for 2004, compared to 2003. This optimism is based on improved marketing opportunities for pork on the world market, as a result of the avian flu outbreak in a number of countries. This disease has resulted in disturbed meat supply patterns, particularly for the catering and foodservice sectors in Japan and other Asian countries.

In total, the 15 EU member states are predicting a 0.8% fall in production for the year. For the major pork producing countries in the EU, the predictions are shown in Table 1.

On prices, the forecast for 2004 is for prices to range from +5% to + 11%, France predicting the highest price hike and Holland the lowest at 4.6%. Assuming an average increase in prices of just 8%, this would bring the EU Grade ‘E' average for 2004 to €1.38 and the Irish average to €1.33/kg, current prices are already ahead of this.

At home, there are no pig price changes to report, with the price into the main slaughter plants still at €1.37 to €1.40, while pork is paying a net price of €1.44 on average this week. The Northern Ireland price is between €1.42 to €1.48, while the bonus for "welfare'' pigs remains at 6cent/kg, into both Northern and Southern plants. However, the sow price has risen rapidly, with prices of over €30 per cwt live weight widely available as competition for sows heighten.

Weaner demand is unchanged, with prices averaging €50 for 32kg.