Country under quota but farmers urged to stay cautious

By Mairead Lavery

A survey by the Irish Farmers Journal has revealed that the vast majority of milk processors in the country are under quota as of the end of January.

In most cases the under supply is around 1% and the majority of processors are confident that by the end of March suppliers will be on target to meet quota.

However, Connacht Gold says it will definitely not meet quota, while Glanbia will only reach quota if there is a substantial lift in supplies over the next two weeks.

The reasons for the undersupply situation are varied but last spring's weather definitely held back peak supplies. Certainly calving dates seem to have slipped as farmers seek to calve cows out to grass. This slippage is compounded by poor fertility levels, which have pushed calving dates back further than most farmers would like.

The level of grass growth over the next seven or so weeks will be key to determining whether the under supply situation will run to the end of March. As of now there is not as much grass around as last year but that situation can change dramatically.

Glanbia

Quota situation: 2% under

Supplies across Glanbia have not taken off as yet. At the end of January the Avonmore/Waterford milk pool was down 12 million litres and Premier was under by over 5 million litres.

According to Michael O'Neill, unless supplies pick up within the next two weeks it will be hard to see Glanbia making up lost ground and filling its quota.

On the Premier front O'Neill is blaming bad weather in October when liquid suppliers were driving forward as being responsible for the blip in the supply curve.

Kerry

Quota situation: 1% under

Kerry is about 10 million litres under quota and that continues a trend that's run for the year.

However, given the size of the Kerry milk pool this could all change very quickly and the Co-op expects to come in on target.

Kerry recommends that each supplier keeps a close eye on their own situation.

Dairygold

Quota situation: 1.7% under

The co-op hasn't the final figures for January but expects to come in around 1.7% under quota to the end of January. This is the first spring in a number of years that Dairygold finds itself in this situation.

"There was no real peak in production and that kept us under quota all year. However, I believe supply will catch up and Dairygold will fill its quota,'' said Noel Coughlan.

Wexford

Quota situation: about 2% under

In the last week the milk supply graph has shot up and the co-op expects suppliers to reclaim the 2million litres they are currently under quota. A spokesman said that unless weather conditions turned bad he didn't anticipate a situation where the co-op would be under quota.

Relative to its size Wexford was hit with a big super levy bill last year (€750,000) and this might explain why calving dates have slipped by a week to ten days this season.

Connacht Gold

Quota situation: 5% under

A spokesman for Connacht Gold said the co-op would not be filling its milk quota this year. The co-op had a poor April and May and supplies never recovered.

According to Pat O'Meara, one of the reasons attributed for the under-supply is that a good number of suppliers bought extra quota in the last year but weren't geared up to fill it this year. He expected these suppliers to fully fill their quota in the coming quota year.

Lakeland Dairies

Quota situation:: on target

Lakeland Dairies describes itself as 'there or thereabouts' on quota and Dermot Coyle says that milk supplies for December are up 10.5% with those for January up 7%.

Referring to restructuring in the Lakeland Dairies area last year, demand for extra quota under the restructuring scheme from Lakeland suppliers exceeded the volume of available milk by a factor of 2.5 to 1. There continues to be considerable demand for extra quota among milk producers in the Lakeland catchment area.

Lisavaird

Quota situation: 1.9% under

Bit of scope here but with an early spring and a lot of cows gone to grass the story from Lisavaird is that milk suppliers need to be cautious.

Drinagh

Quota situation: 2.5% under

Unless March turns out to be very good Drinagh is unlikely to fill its milk quota. Supplies during January just about matched the same period last year and supplies are not being pushed out for the first week of February.

Bandon

Quota situation: 1% under

The co-op is confident it will be on target for the end of March and supplies are already up 10% for December and January.

Town of Monaghan

Quota situation: 1% under

Milk supplies for December and January have caught up on last year's levels and are now running 5% ahead of last year. According to Aiden McCabe, supplies could accommodate a 7% increase and still come in on quota.

Arrabawn

Quota situation: 1.3% under

Milk supplies are up strongly over last year in some areas and the co-op is confident that it will fill its quota.

Barryroe

Quota situation: 0.2% under

Barryroe is almost on quota and does not expect the situation to change much in the next seven weeks.

Centenary/Thurles

Quota situation: Centenary 1.5% over. Thurles 3.5% under

In our survey, Centenary has emerged as the only co-op in the country that is over quota. Even though Thurles - the other part of the newly merged co-op - is well under quota there is no benefit in this to Centenary suppliers as the milk pools of both co-ops will not come together until the next quota year.

Newmarket

Quota situation: 2% under

It's doubtful if Newmarket will fill its quota under any circumstances.

"Supplies are back every month since April and a lot of that is due to later calving,'' said Donie Kiely.

Tipperary

Quota situation: 0.8% under

A good spell of weather for the last seven weeks of the quota year and Tipperary will meet its quota.