Negotiations driven by Mandelson

By Matt Dempsey

The latest presentations from the Commission on the effect of a WTO deal have left informed observers wondering where the truth lies.

In a comparison of the various scenarios, the Commission has put forward the case that the latest proposals from the Chairman of the WTO's Agricultural talks - New Zealander, Crawford Falkner are broadly as favourable if not more favourable than the offer made last October by the Commission.

Most damage

The most extreme damage to European farming is done by the proposal made by the so called G20 countries led by Brazil and India which would see beef prices in particular plunge by well over 50% from present levels.

Part of the problem seems to be on the lack of clarity on whether sensitive product status would mean extra duty and levy free access to the community on a percentage of imports of about 0.5 million tonnes, or on total consumption as Brazil proposes, which is about 8 million tonnes.

The Commission briefing also uses out of date material for the price of cereals, penciling in a price for dry wheat of less than €95 a tonne. At present energy and fertiliser prices this figure would seem to lack credibility.

Mandelson push

At this stage, there is an intensive push by Peter Mandelson and his allies to arrange a Ministerial conference on WTO for late April / early May.

While the deadline keeps on being pushed out, the confirmation by the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown that Mandelson will not serve a second term as Commissioner will re-enforce his determination to secure a deal.

It is understood that Mr. Mandelson is bypassing the Trade department in the US an is attempting to persuade President Bush directly that he can initialise a deal which if then accepted by the rest of the WTO participants would be legally binding on them including the EU.

It would be up to President Bush's successor to then steer the agreement through congress.

Time is now beginning to run out but the danger is that if a Ministerial meeting is called, politicians will find it difficult to avoid reaching an agreement that will promise to "do something'' during the present financial turbulence.