Fears of barley carryover

By Andy Doyle

With little more than 10 weeks remaining until the start of the Irish harvest, there is growing concern that we could see a carryover of barley stocks into the 2008 harvest.

The trade believes that wheat will be used up but the prospects of barley in store, coupled with a claimed increase in the barley acreage for 2008, could lead to significant problems next harvest.

Much of the Irish wheat has already been sold and these supplies are now being used up. It would seem that wheat supply is also tight in the EU. France still has surplus wheat available but this may now be destined for North African markets.

There seems to be more barley about, both here and abroad. Some suggest that a lot of the conditioned barley may still be in store because of a possible fall-off in the sale of coarse rations due to the high price or availability of mixing ingredients. The suggestion is that there is a lot of barley still available in France and Spain.

Prices today reflect these changing circumstances. Wheat will have to compete with maize imports from Argentina but no one knows for sure if these will be available because of the strike there.

US maize

The feeling is that sorghum will not come into the EU next year because it is more likely to go to the US if there is a big decrease in maize plantings there. But, with US maize pushing above $6/bushel recently, US farmers are rethinking their planting intentions and more maize is still possible.

The grain price see-saw continues here with wheat having fallen from around €240/tonne a month ago to €225 now, if you could get a buyer.

The barley trade is even more difficult and November oilseed rape prices have fallen from €530 two months ago to €421 this week.

This certainly makes the decision to opt for energy contracts easier for growers filling in single farm payment forms at the moment.