Lisbon Yes, FF No

By Pat O'Toole and Richard Colwell

Farmers intend to vote overwhelmingly in favour of next week's referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, according to an opinion poll of 1,000 farmers carried out by RED C. Over two thirds (71%) of farmers deemed likely to vote claim that they will vote 'yes'; 14% will vote 'no' while 15% say they 'don't know'. When the undecided voters are excluded, the proportion of farmers likely to vote in favour is a massive 84%.

Meanwhile, the Irish Farmers Journal/IFA poll reveals a collapse in farmer support for Fianna Fáil. When asked how they would vote if a General Election were held immediately, only 25% said that they would give Fianna Fáil their first preference vote. This is a massive drop from the 46% of farmers who cited a preference for Fianna Fáil when asked the same question just 16 months ago.

Fine Gael are the major beneficiaries of the collapse in support for the main Government party. Their first preference vote among farmers is now at 62%, a full 22 percentage points above their standing with farmers in the last RED C poll in May 2008.

Farmers will be strongly backing the Lisbon Treaty when they go to vote in the referendum in just over a week, according to an Irish Farmers Journal/IFA RED C poll, which sees support for the Treaty among farmers significantly higher than that recorded before the referendum in 2008.

Of the 1,000 farmers polled in today's survey, who are likely to vote, over two thirds (71%) claim that they will vote Yes, while just 14% will vote No, and a further 15% are undecided. When the undecided voters are excluded, this means support for the Treaty is currently at 84%.

This is in marked contrast to the RED C/Irish Farmers Journal poll taken at a similar stage in the campaign before the last Treaty referendum, when 40% stated they would vote Yes, 33% said they would vote No and 27% remained undecided.

It also means that on this occasion, the farming community appears to be more supportive of the Treaty than the general public, as 62% of the general public currently claim they will vote Yes, representing a 10% difference.

When we examine those farmers who are still undecided in more detail, it is apparent that this group are potentially more likely to vote No, given that a much higher proportion (57%) did so last time. However, even if these proportions are taken into account, and the majority of those still undecided do end up voting No, the Treaty would still be passed among the farming community.

Support for the Treaty is strongest among older age groups and those working on farms in Leinster, while support is at its lowest among the youngest 18 to 24-year-old age groups and those based in Ulster.

However, even in Ulster, the Treaty is likely to be passed, with 59% saying they will vote Yes. Fears about Ireland's economic future are the key factors behind the support for a Yes vote among the farming community, as 33% claim that the reason they will vote Yes is the need for the support of Europe in the current economic climate. Outside of this, where the economy is not directly mentioned, the majority of reasons given for voting Yes imply the need for the support of Europe.

party support

However, support for the Treaty among farmers does not have a direct correlation with support for Government parties. In fact, the anger among the farming community towards the Government is very apparent when we look at likely voting intentions in a general election.

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