Enthusiasm but tempered by realism

By Matt Dempsey

Last Saturday's national sheep event, held at the UCD farm at Lyons estate, was upbeat and positive. Helped by glorious summer weather and better market prices - at least so far, the event attracted a much larger than expected crowd of about 7,000. No doubt the greatly improved national road network and easy accessibility to the site helped significantly.

Despite the weather and good humour, the four well-attended seminars concentrated minds.

Some of the basic facts surrounding the sheep sector are sobering.

Ewe numbers over the last 15 years have dropped from 4 million ewes to 2.3 million at the moment.

The major French buyer present spoke of Ireland being no longer a 52 week a year supplier - a point backed up by Kepak's Commercial Manager in charge of sheep, Joe Walsh.

Interestingly, the French buyer was not buying any New Zealand lamb but was instead filling in the deficit in Irish supplies in the off-season by Spanish lamb, a product in the main from the Spanish sheep cheese industry.

But it's not just in Ireland where sheep numbers are in decline. All over the world, ewe numbers are dropping especially in the pasture-based regions of Europe and New Zealand. It is not because of taste or consumer rejection. The results of Bord Bia's work is showing a really strong consumer attachment to the product but it is seen as expensive and labour intensive. The reason for the relative expensiveness versus other meats is not difficult to find. The steady decline in grain prices coupled with genetic gain has made other meats, especially pigmeat and poultry cheaper.

The conversion efficiency in these sectors is such that large scale intensification is possible, further driving down costs. Sheep are the classic ruminants, able to turn pasture into excellent healthy meat. Their environmentally positive role is recognised in the grassland premium introduced recently here and is a long-term feature of the French sheep industry. We are likely to see more of this type of coupled payment as the EU's agri politicians come to realise that the uncontrolled application of market forces will further reduce output and further reduce activity in rural areas, especially in hill and disadvantaged regions.

There was some disappointment at the Lyons event that the long awaited (since May 2007) fencing and handling aid was not announced and one has to wonder at the appropriateness of senior Teagasc personnel publicly haranguing important French buyers on the place of castration in lamb production.

Ultimately from a sheep farmers point of view the messages were clear; litter size, fertility and health can all be improved through better science. ICBF have put in place a revamped breeding programme and good research can deliver steady, measurable improvements in efficiency. They are going to be needed. While market prospects are encouraging and profitability in sheep production is real, there will be continuous competition from other meats and other suppliers for the consumers' euro. Younger consumers need to be encouraged to develop a taste for the product so that even the present modest 4kg a year can be maintained, while the growing Muslim market must be nurtured. Sheep are going to continue to play a valuable place on the Irish livestock scene but to what extent will depend on efficiency at farm level and a realistic appreciation of the need for underpining of returns at political level.