The announcement of a UK general election for 8 June has been interpreted as good news in the sense that it will enable Theresa May to ignore the hard Brexiteers in the Tory party. These, it is assumed, have been pushing the British prime minister in a direction she did not wish to go, towards the “no deal is better than a bad deal” remark in her landmark speech in January. According to the optimists, there is now a better prospect of a soft Brexit.

It would be nice to believe that a Conservative victory, with an enhanced majority, will produce a government likely to negotiate a broad, long-term trade deal more in tune with Ireland’s interests. If there is no deal, or a limited deal, Ireland is the biggest loser after Britain herself. But the election does not alter some key parameters of the negotiating prospects. Britain is leaving the single market and, it appears almost certain, the customs union. These two actions create the problems for Ireland and it is wishful thinking to imagine that either is now less likely.

There will be a successor free trade agreement between the EU-27 and the UK, and an implementation phase while this is put in place. But Britain becomes a third country and could have no closer a relationship with the European Union than do the many countries around the world which already have such deals.

It was open to the UK government to implement the referendum verdict in minimalist fashion, leaving the EU but not the single market (the so-called Norway option) and staying in the customs union (non-EU countries can have a customs union arrangement – Turkey does). These two options have been ruled out. Staying in the single market would have meant a continuation of free movement and the impossibility of immigration controls. Staying in the customs union would have precluded the UK from negotiating bilateral trade deals with non-European countries and May and her ministers have set great store on the opportunities which they believe can be created. The fact that they may be sorely mistaken is neither here nor there, even though this is the judgement of virtually all the studies which have been conducted by trade experts.

It would suit Ireland’s interests if the UK could be kept inside the customs union but to negotiate such a deal would be seen as an enormous climb-down at this stage. Too much rhetoric has been expended on the Global Britain agenda to accommodate a reversal of course and it would reopen divisions in the Tory party. Belief in the agenda is not susceptible to rational argument anyway – the trading opportunities outside Europe are an article of faith.

Negotiations

So the likely outcome, exit from both single market and customs union, has not been materially altered by the calling of the election. As soon as the new government is formed the negotiations with Brussels will commence and the ultimate objective will be as before, the securing of a free trade agreement between Britain and the EU along the lines of those already in place with numerous countries.

At this stage it is impossible to predict what this agreement will cover – it could be very comprehensive or very narrow. But there are some certainties. There will not be a sudden stop on 29 March 2019, with tariffs going straight to the WTO default position. A transition period, perhaps lasting several years, will be acceptable to all parties.

But it is unlikely that any agreement will cover agriculture and the food industry in a manner which maintains anything approaching current levels of access. The existing third-country agreements concluded by the EU do not cover agricultural trade in any comprehensive manner and the EU food market is not easily accessed from outside the union. EU producers similarly do not enjoy easy access to non-EU markets. Of course, Britain will cease membership in the Common Agricultural Policy, which is confined to EU member states.

Intention

It is the stated intention of the UK government, as per the Article 50 notification letter, that the new trade agreement “should be of greater scope and ambition than any such agreement before it so that it covers sectors crucial to our linked economies such as financial services and network industries”.

This may indeed be the sincere intention and the EU has responded by echoing high aspirations. But there is no guarantee that an ambitious agreement can be reached and the two sectors highlighted, financial services and network industries, will not necessarily be priorities for the EU-27.

The negotiations on the free trade agreement will not in any event get seriously under way until after the German elections in the autumn, if then. Calling an election changes very little from an Irish perspective.