The 100,000 head jump in the numbers of finished cattle that was forecast for 2017 is being slowly eaten away. Live exports are up by 34,961 head to date this year.

While a lot of the increase has been in calf exports, exports of young bulls to Turkey and Libya will affect slaughter numbers at the end of this year.

Figures from the Department of Agriculture’s AIMS system show that there has been a significant reduction in carcase weights for the first four months of 2017. Steer carcase weights were down by 9.6kg, heifers by 4.9kg and cows by 7.3kg.

Factors

Among the factors driving the reduction in carcase weights are farmers claiming quality bonuses and more use of traditional breeds.

This week, IFA livestock chair Angus Woods claimed that if these developments continue there may just be 5,000 extra finished cattle for the second half of the year. He calculates this as follows:

  • Continuing live exports would reduce numbers of finished animals in 2017 by 30,000 head.
  • Continuing lighter carcase weights would amount to a cut of 11,584t of beef equal to 35,000 fewer cattle.
  • The factory kill to date in 2017 is up by 30,209 head – that reduces the numbers available for the second half of the year.
  • Pressure

    Woods argues that there is therefore no market basis for pressure on cattle prices at this time.

    “At last week’s meeting of the EU Beef Market Observatory, we heard that EU beef consumption is up 1.5% and production is down by 0.5%. Market demand is very strong and there is no beef in store. Beef prices in our main export market in the UK have risen each week for the last 10 weeks in a row by over 16c/kg and are currently at the equivalent of €4.48/kg. These price increases outweigh any change in the sterling exchange rate,” Woods said.

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