Recent evidence of a price bubble in Dublin’s housing market, while oversupply continues to restrain recovery in the provinces, is just a manifestation of a deeper pattern also evident in the jobs market.

Dublin, along with the larger provincial cities, appears to be experiencing some degree of economic recovery, but the smaller provincial centres remain depressed.

Driving through provincial towns and villages, it is impossible not to notice the extent of vacant and apparently abandoned retail premises. Less evident, but just as significant, is the high vacancy rate in the older residential streets. The older houses in the central areas of Irish towns and villages are being slowly de-tenanted and the oversupply of new boom-era housing on the outskirts can only accentuate the trend.

There appears to be a steady concentration of retailing also. The bigger towns invariably boast branches of the main supermarket chains and the small shops in the villages struggle to compete. Almost all Irish rural households have at least one car and many have two or more. The new motorway network affects the viability of the smaller provincial centres, since those shopping occasionally for big-ticket items like white goods, cars or high-end fashion can more easily undertake an expedition to Dublin or Cork. The road improvements have made the country smaller and that fact is irreversible. That means a lesser need for a dispersed network of retail outlets of all descriptions and undermines the traditional role of what used to be the smaller market towns.

The bubble period masked what was happening to many provincial towns. There was an unsustainable boost to consumer spending, which encouraged the survival of retailing and in some cases even the provision of extra shopping units. Some provincial towns have shopping centres built during the bubble where many of the units have never been occupied and quite likely never will. Overall consumer spending is almost 20% below the bubble peak and there is evidence of population decline in some rural areas.

The State sector is also affected. It is clear that An Post would like to shrink the network of post offices and there are garda stations which have no gardaí attached. They open for just a few hours a day, staffed by gardai visiting from the nearest town with a full garda station.

Bank branches are closing in many centres and the number of district courts has already been reduced. Towns with populations of 10,000 or more are big enough to retain a strong retailing presence as well as public service outlets and some smaller towns, especially in tourist areas, will survive better than others. It is the inland towns with populations below 1,500 which are feeling the full impact of the downturn and most Irish counties have several towns in this bracket.

It is difficult to see these towns surviving as anything other than mainly residential areas, particularly if there is a large centre within 15 or 20 minutes by car.

The return of industrialisation on a large scale, with new manufacturing plants located in smaller centres, would clearly make a difference, but all the evidence is that firms find this option unattractive. Outside Dublin, the prospects are reasonable in Cork, Limerick, Galway and some of the other larger centres.

It is tempting for local politicians to seek the salvation of the smaller rural towns through clinging on to whatever public services they currently enjoy.

The limits to this policy are obvious: only poorly patronised services will be possible, as was illustrated recently when Transport Minister Leo Varadkar drew attention to the extraordinary fact that, of the 147 railway stations in Ireland, 31 had fewer than 100 people boarding trains every day. There is a rail census every year, and the most recent data for 2012 showed that the number of people boarding trains on the secondary line from Ballybrophy to Limerick was as follows: Roscrea, 15; Cloughjordan, 5; Nenagh, 18; Birdhill, 8; and Castleconnell, 9.

These numbers are barely enough to justify a minibus service and it is an illusion that the plight of rural towns can somehow be addressed through the provision of costly public services for which there is no demand.

It is a far better option to accept that the smaller towns and villages now fulfil an essentially residential function, and to devote scarce public funds to the restoration of their housing stock.