Every so often, the Irish media works up a scare about Ireland’s booze problem, particularly with stories about underage alcohol abuse, binge drinking and consequent antisocial behaviour.

The background assumption in the media coverage appears to be that Ireland has a particular problem with alcohol and that this problem is persistent.

But alcohol consumption has fallen sharply in recent times and Irish per-capita consumption is at levels no higher than in other European countries, such as Britain, France and Germany, according to data from the World Health Organisation.

Interestingly, the decline in Irish consumption predates the bursting of the credit bubble in 2008 and the subsequent collapse in incomes and consumer spending. Per-capita consumption peaked around 2002 and had already fallen 10%, despite rising incomes, by the time the bubble burst.

There has been a further steep fall in the period since: in 2013, the average Irish adult, taken as aged 15+ in the statistics, consumed 30% less alcohol than at the peak in 2002 as measured by the Revenue Commissioners.

The periodic media booze scares rarely draw attention to this long-running pattern in Irish alcohol demand.

Of course, this decline does not mean that excess indulgence does not remain a problem. However, the raw statistics support the view that whatever problems there were a decade or more ago have been ameliorated to some degree.

Recession

The decline in consumption is not to be explained by the deep economic recession: it commenced long before. If alcohol consumption had retained its popularity with consumers, it would still be close to the 2002 figure, even allowing for the reversal of bubble-era income gains. For a given income, people are spending less on alcohol. There has not been a heavy increase in alcohol taxes either.

One manifestation of the consumption decline is the closure of pubs throughout the country, including in parts of the cities. There are now about 1,000 fewer pubs than there were a decade ago and the decline of the pub is particularly noticeable in the smaller towns and villages.

This pattern is also evident in Britain and the London-based Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) has just published a report (available at www.iea.org.uk) which traces the decline of the British pub. It concludes that a large part of the explanation is just a shift in consumer behaviour: drinking in pubs is simply not as popular as it used to be.

The notion that the pubs have lost out to supermarkets and off-licences is supported by the data, but they have always enjoyed a price advantage. It has always been dearer to drink in the pub. What has changed is that consumers’ preferences have shifted away from the pub towards drinking at home.

Smoking ban

But the IEA does point the finger at the smoking ban: it reckons the pub trade in Britain has lost out and it is reasonable to assume that there has also been an impact here.

But the consumption decline in Ireland predated the smoking ban by a couple of years, so it cannot be the whole story. Drink-driving legislation is also being enforced more vigorously, a further non-economic factor in the decline.

When all of the obvious factors are added up, the bottom line seems to be that public preferences have simply altered. People are choosing to drink less and to do more of their reduced drinking at home.

While it is a shame to see country pubs disappear, or restrict their opening hours, it is unrealistic to expect the Government to conjure up some practical plan that will reverse this trend.