Part of the Commission proposal is that annual emission limits are determined based on a linear trajectory, starting in 2020, from the average emissions for 2016 to 2018 based on the most recent reviewed GHG emission data.

MEPs will either vote to go with this proposal or base 2030 reduction targets on average emissions from 2020.

However, the European Parliament’s environment committee has thrown out this proposed linear trajectory, starting in 2020 for emissions reductions.

Given that Ireland has no chance of meeting its 2020 reduction target of 20%, this will, if it holds, have very serious consequences for us.

Poitics

The issue now goes to a vote of the full Parliament and it is usual that the members take their lead from the committee. However, this vote isn’t as clear cut.

For a start, political groupings are much looser than is the case in the Dáil or Westminster with no effective whip.

Therefore, the more environmental-orientated groupings such as the Greens, Liberals, Socialists and Democrats and various groups on the left need to have virtually every other unaligned member on board as the European Peoples Party and the Conservatives make up 339 members of the 760-seat chamber.

With members drawn from across the 28 member states, vote outcomes in Parliament are uncertain hence the willingness to engage in horse trading in advance to maximise the chance of securing the vote.

What happens if Parliament votes amend the Commission proposals?

For Ireland this would be a potential disaster but it isn’t the end game.

The suggestion that Ireland would “catch up” on its impossible 2020 target isn’t practical without effectively wiping out the livestock sector which no Irish Government will contemplate.

If Ireland’s circumstances cannot be accommodated within Parliament the ultimate backstop is the Council of Ministers.

Here the Irish Government would have to persuade colleagues to accept something closer to the Commissions original proposal to start measuring at current levels for Ireland rather than the target we signed up to in very different times, and take this position into the interinstitutional negotiations with the Parliament.

Why Ireland has to make a stand

In the overall scheme of things Ireland accounts for just 1% of the EU’s total emissions. What Ireland does to reduce its emissions could be ignored in Brussels without any material impact on the overall EU position.

However, that is not going to happen and Ireland would not want it to happen. The EU has made it clear it is going to lead on the issue in the aftermath of President Trump pulling the USA out of the Paris agreement.

What has to happen is that Ireland achieves a negotiation of a reduction target for 2030 that is deliverable without decimating the economy.

Ireland is more dependent on agriculture for its Gross National Income (as opposed to Gross Domestic Product which is driven by multinationals).

With the EU using the GDP measurement to determine national wealth, there is a perception among several EU countries that Ireland is much wealthier than it actually is (Leprechaun Economics).

Larger, more powerful countries in Europe are inclined to fix the rules to suit themselves whether it is including management of established forests rather than just new plantings or wetlands.

Ireland is different in that we have a pasture- and livestock-based agriculture that is a relatively large contributor to the economy.

Council of Ministers

The Commission by its construction is non-national but the Parliament, being directly elected is very much dominated by national interest which leads often to cross party voting in national interests as opposed to party interest.

Against this backdrop, small nation’s interests in Parliament often lose out to the larger countries with the bigger voting blocs.

Sometimes alliances can be built to counteract or minimise this. That is why the endgame has to be with the Council of Ministers.

Ireland won’t be able to make up the rules as it sees fit but a practical contribution by Ireland to reduce emissions has to be found rather than be bullied into accepting what is good for other larger member states as is likely to be reflected in Parliament.

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