Some worrying realizations in recent weeks have left this scribbler pondering as to whether a trip to see ‘Mystic Meg’ and her crystal ball might be necessary. I speak not of the situation at home, but of the industry as a whole.

“Have they started any heifer-rearing research up there yet?” goes a cheeky inquiry from a Friesian-fond friend. “Sure it’s the only way beef boys can make money now.”

Is he wrong?

I’ve come to the conclusion that, at home, we’re five hectares in the black at current grass growth levels. Maybe a trip to the mart is in order?

Putting 200kg of live weight on a 400kg heifer purchased this week to produce a 315 kg carcass in November would cost us €270 in feed.

But, what would a man have to pay for such an animal in the current ‘beef bubble’?

I won’t bore with further sums, but as you can imagine, after a dose for parasites and payments for the auctioneer and haulage man, there isn’t much left.

Maybe those with elbow-room around the ring know something we don’t? It’s frightening that, all going well, an extremely low-cost system such as the one we could theoretically run, would leave pittance behind.

Presumably those selling cattle for colossal money need to buy more? Isn’t that how these things work?

What sort of beef prices will be needed in the winter and beyond, just to keep treading water? Last week’s Irish Farmers Journal reported that live exports are 20,000 head down on the same period last year. It’s the trend, not the figure, that raises eyebrows. Providing she gets there unscathed, what kind of price will the heifer born this morning on our farm achieve when factory-ready?

It’s a long way down the line, but what sort of business doesn’t look ahead?

Here’s hoping that these forecasts prove to be gibberish (oh, and the May weather ones too)!

Enough gloom. For suckler farmers, one of the most positive measures in recent memory launches next week. Finally, breeding strategies producing top quality calves and replacements will be recognised.

The easiest way to increase output IMO? Not a higher stocking rate or an intensive finishing regime but breeding a better quality calf.

What about a factory offering a premium for calves with five-star ratings for the more-valuable beef cuts? Now there’s an idea.

Where’s my AI book…