Grain markets continue on an uncertain path. The recent strengthening of EU futures appears to have come to a sudden halt, with December wheat down almost €8/t since last weekend. Currency has had a significant impact on euro prices in recent weeks to mask what has been happening elsewhere. If MATIF May wheat prices are expressed in US dollar terms, the price today would be lower than it was at peak harvest pressure. Currency drove a surge in euro prices in mid-November, but this difference now appears to be realigning.

US maize prices got a boost following the announcement of the higher US biofuel mandate. This also increased soya bean prices, as more soya oil is likely to go for biodiesel. This is impacting on all vegetable oils and back to oilseed rape, where February MATIF price has exceeded €404/t.

Meanwhile, output expectations from southern hemisphere harvests remain high. If these predictions come to pass, it seems likely that they will put further pressure on wheat and maize prices.

Native prices remain broadly similar in the near term and for new crop, but definitely weaker in the medium term. Spot prices remain around €167 to €168/t for wheat, with barley around €155 to €157/t. March / May positions are back to €170/t for wheat and €160/t for barley. November wheat remains around €170/t, with barley at €158 to €160/t.

Earlier this week, Glanbia offered its growers €169/t for wheat for November, with €156/t for barley.