Recent international grain prices have been influenced more by weather concerns in some exporting countries than by the weight of supply. While we have projections of over 500 million tonnes of global grain stocks, it is important to remember that this still only equates to a stocks-to-use ratio of 25%, similar to a 400 Mt stock when consumption was 1,600 Mt. And with well over 100 Mt of these stocks unlikely to ever come to market, traders remain sensitive to weather issues that threaten to decrease supply in the season ahead.

Cold and dry conditions in winter wheat-growing areas of the US are threatening production capacity, as crop condition ratings fall in some states. And in parts of Ukraine, thin snow cover is giving rise to potential winter kill concerns following recent sub-zero temperatures, especially in western regions. But these are still sentiment reactions rather than something real for the market.

In general, prices here have firmed over the past two weeks, mainly due to the lack of sellers and increased fund activity elsewhere. Spot price for wheat sits in the €170 to €175/t range, but €173/t might be expected. Barley remains around €160/t. Spot rape is in the €410/t to €412/t range.

May prices are up slightly with wheat around €175 to €176/t and barley at €162 to €163/t. November wheat is now €170 to €172/t, with barley at €160 to €162/t. Earlier this week, Glanbia offered €137/t for green wheat for harvest and €126/t for green barley.