Straw availability is increasingly likely to be limited by a combination of the fall in the higher yielding winter cereals area and the poor growth patterns in all crops in spring.

While prediction is always risky, it seems possible that overall straw production could be down by as much as 3m to 3.5m bales, as suggested last week by the IFA.

Within the total area of cereals (260,000ha), counties are affected differently by the weather. This could mean that average straw yields in counties could vary from 16 to 27 4x4 bales per hectare.

If only one-third of the cereal area is in the high straw yield bracket, availability could be back around 3.5m 4x4 bales, based on the yields stated previously. A normal yield of around 25 bales/ha from the same area would equate to 6.5m bales.

However, these numbers are just estimates and we have no certainty of the yields or the proportion that will have good or poor yields. If the split of good and bad was 50%, it would considerably increase straw availability. Increasing the yield for the poorer area has less of an overall impact.

However, we can say with certainty that wheat straw availability for feeding and composting will be considerably reduced due to the 26% area decrease. So a shortage of wheat straw is inevitable.