The Brexit vote went through the Westminster Parliament as expected during the week with the only notable stories being the disunity in Labour, and the sole Conservative opponent, the veteran pro-EU MP Ken Clarke, making a last stand in voting against the Government.

The Irish Farmers Journal Navigating Global Trade conference the previous week highlighted just what Brexit could mean for Irish and UK farmers. While it is tempting to think it won't be the worst-case scenario, it is best to assume that it will be and work back from that.

After all, few seriously expected that the UK would vote to leave the EU, Donald Trump would be elected US president and that, if he was, he would keep the promises he made in his campaign. All of these events happened, as dramatically illustrated by Ornua staff failing to get entry to the US for the first time since it entered the US market.

Woolly

The launch of the consultation on CAP 2020 this week brings it home to UK farmers that this is where they really leave the support structure of the EU, with all its flaws. Theresa May, the British prime minister, revealed little detail in her white paper on Brexit with regard to what the CAP successor might look like for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The Ulster Farmers Union and its sister organisations in Britain will have to lobby like never before to secure a farm policy that at least replicates the CAP

There were woolly references to Brexit being an opportunity “to design new, better and more efficient policies for delivering sustainable and productive farming. This will enable us to deliver our vision for a world-leading food and farming industry.” Fine words and ambitions, but farmers will be interested in learning how the UK government plans to deliver this vision.

The one ace UK farmers have is that the UK is a net food importer, with food representing the majority of all UK imports. Yet historically the UK has pursued a cheap food policy and the countries identified by Theresa May in her recent speech as trade deal targets are all major food exporters.

Hormone-treated beef

The discussion between the UK and US on taking hormone-treated beef will be most interesting indeed. This is where the Ulster Farmers Union and its sister organisations in Britain will have to lobby like never before to secure a farm policy that at least replicates the CAP. Anything better will be a welcome bonus.

There is a further interesting dimension to a new UK agriculture policy. Under the current CAP, Northern Ireland achieved the highest return of any UK region, based largely on the historical drawdown. This caused particular annoyance to the Scots, who felt they missed out on what they are entitled to. If, as appears likely, Scotland is going to remain part of the UK at least in the medium term, they will be looking for a larger slice of the future UK agriculture budget.

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