Quotes for new-season fertiliser have seen nitrogen below €200/t for the first time in more than five years.

According to a recent IFA fertiliser price survey, quotes for new-season fertiliser have fallen to new levels in recent weeks, with full loads of top-lift CAN on offer for under €190/t for September to October delivery with October and November payment.

In general, CAN prices are ranging between €190 and €220/t, with some prices as high as €260/t. Pasture sward or 27-2.5-5 is on offer in some instances for less than €290/t with cut sward or 24-2.5-10 €8 to €10/t over. Some farmers will be asking if these prices reflect value and whether now is a good time to buy for next season.

As reported on page 20, nitrogen market analyst Clive Yearsley says as there have been huge price drops over the last year, it is unlikely there is much more to go, but adds that with new capacity coming on board in first quarter 2017, any upside to prices may be limited.

This comes as CAN prices have fallen by more than a third from €300-320/t at the start of this year, as fertiliser producers reacted to the collapsed energy costs and weak ag commodity markets.

Importers in Ireland have said the market has been very slow all season, with volumes back 5-7%. Importers are also saying there is little international buying activity across Europe currently, as buyers wait to see if there is potential for prices to drop even further.

Many believe it will be difficult to see prices increase back to levels where they were at the start of this year, saying this would mean €100/t rise over the next five to six months.

Given where energy prices have fallen to, the additional capacity that has come on stream along with increased competition from urea and low dairy, beef and grain prices, an increase of this level is very difficult to see.