International grain futures prices rose last week, but slipped back a bit in the early days of this week before turning upwards again. The rise was partly fuelled by lower-than-anticipated yields from maize crops in the US and Europe and also from concerns arising from winter crop planting constraints in the Black Sea region.

Dryness in that region has already impacted on planting of winter rape and now there are fears for winter cereal planting unless there is rain soon to help germination.

So weather in central Europe, combined with new quarterly US stocks data due out this week, may have a significant impact on price movements in the week ahead. And if dryness continues to delay planting, it brings the added fear of winter kill in the event of a severe winter.

Last week’s report from the International Grains Council increased global wheat production by seven million tonnes compared with last month and this subsequently acted to pressurise prices once again. Stock estimates were also increased to a record 211Mt of wheat.

The recent HGCA market report stated that the Russian government has proposed to cut its wheat export tax from 1 October. This tax reduction is expected to encourage wheat exports from Russia, which are currently behind last year’s level.

Irish prices are generally firmer this week, with spot barley trading around €158/t to €160/t and spot wheat around €165 to €168/t. Prices for November/December are firmer again, with €162/t to €165/t for barley and €172/t to €174/t for wheat.

Green harvest prices have yet to be finalised, but it is possible that they may fluctuate either side of €135/t.