Rabobank, in its latest beef quarterly publication, expects global beef prices to fall into the final quarter of this year. It refers to the US and China in particular as drivers of the downward pressure, but also expects some easing of prices in Australia. Slowing of economic growth in China is expected to reduce their demand for beef imports, which would disrupt selling plans for many of the major global exporters.

According to Bord Bia’s global price reports, US R3 steer equivalent prices were, in euro terms, €3.74/kg in mid September, which is 90c/kg lower than the same week last year.

Recovery in output in the US after prolonged droughts is the reason why US prices are returning to more normal levels for them after the record highs of 2015.

Australia

Australia, on the other hand, is at a different point in the drought-driven scarcity, with numbers slaughtered this year expected to be the lowest in 20 years after a record high last year.

This has driven prices to the equivalent of €3.80/kg on comparable cattle to our R3 grade steers in mid September, which is 6c/kg ahead of Irish prices in the same week. As Rabobank suggests, some easing of this price might be expected if numbers improve.

Elsewhere, Brazil is showing recovery this year with prices now at the equivalent of €2.53/kg on cattle, similar to our R3 steer which is 54c/kg better than this time last year when Brazilian prices dipped below €2/kg.

Access to the US and China over the past year has driven their sales, as has Russia where Mercosur countries in general are now the main suppliers since the ban on imports from the EU

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