Sharp fall in cattle supply

185,000 less forward stores

Data from the Department of Agriculture's Animal Identification and Movement (AIM) database shows that both supplies of finished cattle and forward stores will remain exceptionally tight in 2012.

The figures show that on 1 November 2011, the number of cattle aged between 18 and 36 months in the country was 140,304 head less than on the same day in 2010. However, this figure includes a 44,000 head increase in the number of dairy females within the 18 to 36-month age bracket. When this is accounted for, the actual number of beef bred males and females and dairy bred males in the country at the start of November 2011 was just under 185,000 head less than the previous year.

throughput

Commenting on the AIM figures, Joe Burke, livestock manager with Bord Bia, said: ''It is now likely that prime cattle supplies will fall by over 125,000 head during 2012. This is based on the strong throughput of finished cattle during last autumn and the sharp drop in the numbers of beef cattle in the 18 to 36-month age bracket on 1 November 2011.'' Earlier forecasts had suggested that the national kill for 2012 would contract by around 90,000 head to 1.48 million head or the lowest level in 16 years. However, this now appears to be a conservative estimate.

Depending on how farmers market cattle and the level of live export activity, the national kill for 2012 could fall well short of 1.45 million head. This would equate to factories having access to an average of almost 3,000 less finished cattle per week.