International grain markets are on a bit of a rise again this week, mainly in response to the potential impact of dryness on the US spring wheat crop. By all accounts, things are on the serious side for this high-quality crop. While this is predominantly a quality wheat issue, it is affecting all futures markets. However, this has not yet affected physical markets, where forward trade remains slow.

Current maize output projections suggest 2017 harvest to be lower than 2016 and this was reduced slightly again last week. Much of this latter drop stems from reduced expectations for EU maize output, but this is still higher than last season. There is ongoing concern about the potential effect of hot weather warnings in the US, which have helped push up futures prices there.

Concerns continue with regard to overall what production. US wheat output may now be higher than anticipated. However, there is continuing concern for wheat output in parts of the EU, the US, China, Canada and Ukraine.

Oilseed rape prices rose recently on the back of high US soya bean production, strong Chinese imports and dry conditions for canola in Canada.

Native prices remain broadly similar. Old-crop wheat remains around €180 to €182/t for dry wheat and €165 to €170/t for barley. November prices are slightly weaker, with wheat around €170 to €172/t and barley at €160/t. On Wednesday of this week, Glanbia offered its growers €173/t and €161/t for wheat and barley, respectively, for November.