Pressure in global markets saw futures grain prices fall again last week. Reports of large Black Sea crops making their way onto export markets and better weather in the US Midwest drove prices down but this may now be turning.

Harvest reports from central Europe indicate an even bigger Russian harvest, with 103 to 105 Mt suggested. Higher yields have also occurred in Ukraine where the harvest is now more than 75% complete. Much of this is likely to be exported post harvest due to storage pressures and thus add to harvest pressure.

With less than 10% of wheat remaining to be cut in France, official estimates have increased output by 600,000t, plus an additional 100,000t of barley. Maize output is currently forecasted to be 9% higher than 2016. But wheat quality is good and this should open the door for exports.

Oilseed prices also fell last week, mainly as a result of the improved optimism for US soya bean and Canadian canola crops. High rape yields in parts of Europe also added to this bearish sentiment. However this may also be changing again, with dryness forecast to return to these regions.

Native physical prices are back on harvest pressure, with new-crop wheat now also in the market. However, there is market activity and this is helping. Spot wheat is down around €172/t with barley at €162-€163/t. Dry rape is quoted at €385/t. November prices are currently around €175/t for wheat and €165/t for barley. Prices for May are a nominal €5/t above November values.