What is the mood among farmers in Britain and Northern Ireland around Brexit?

Farmers are largely confused around Brexit and understandably so. As a firm of agri-consultants we’ve been quite busy this year with farmers coming to us asking what they can do to make their business more robust and resilient against Brexit. At the same time, there’s a very large tract of farmers across the UK who are either burying their heads in the sand or assuming they will be alright after Brexit, which might be the case. We just don’t know. Even unsupported sectors such as pig and poultry are highly exposed to tariffs after Brexit.

What has changed in UK farming in the 40 years since the UK joined the EU in 1973?

There’s been a big shift in the value of commodities during that time, whether its wheat, milk or beef. These products are traded in global marketplaces and UK farmers find themselves competing against, not necessarily more efficient producers, but certainly lower cost producers. Our competitors might be lower cost because they’re more efficient, but it might also be the case that they have different regulatory systems within which they can operate. The price of commodities has continued to go down, meaning farmers have to be ruthlessly focused on keeping their costs of production down.

Does that mean efficiency gains in agriculture have given consumers cheaper food rather than giving farmers a better profit margin?

Consumers have the privilege of far more choice than they did a generation ago. Trade is far more open than it ever was, which has really fuelled choice for consumers. Shoppers in the UK can buy a food product from a farmer around the corner, or they can get pretty much the same product sourced from a farmer on the other side of the world. Apples are a prime example of this opening up of the marketplace. The UK consumer can buy a locally grown apple or one that has been grown in New Zealand. Additionally, because the UK has been part of the EU single market there’s been no frictions to trade in the EU community. So food products have come from every part of the EU to compete against our local producers.

Where do you see UK farming 10 years down the road from Brexit?

We don’t know the answer exactly, but there will be winners and losers in UK farming after Brexit. I think Brexit will accelerate the process of restructuring in UK farming. Whenever the farming sector is challenged, whether that’s through political issues or low market prices, we do typically see an acceleration in farm restructuring. So in 10 years’ time I expect to see fewer farmers producing the same output, or possibly even a bit more. Farm profitability will be shared between a fewer number of people, and decision makers will have influence over larger farming enterprises, be that greater hectares, larger herds or flocks.

What will UK agriculture policy look like after Brexit?

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) in the UK has been clear that it wants to move away from direct supports after Brexit and focus on spending public money on public goods, which would be largely environmental. So instead of farmers receiving flat BPS payments they would have to deliver some environmental good to earn that money.