How has the size of dairy farms changed in the US?

In 1990, there were over 300,000 dairy farms across the US with cow numbers peaking at 11m head. Today, there are 42,000 dairy farms in the US and dairy cow numbers have declined to just over 9m head. The average farm holds 200 cows today. However, the percentage of milk coming from farms with over 1,000 cows is now over 50%. This percentage used to be less than 10% in 1990.

Is milk production in the US in growth mode?

Milk production in the US is expanding, particularly in the midwest and states like Texas. Our biggest dairy state is California but milk production there is actually in decline because of regulation, alternative land uses and high land prices. But Californian milk production will not plunge off a cliff. I believe it will stabilise because there are a lot of long-term family farms out there.

How are foreign dairy processors viewed in the US?

I was surprised when I saw Glanbia coming to the US for the first time in the 1990s. But I watched over the years as they grew and became very successful. The same as other companies like Ornua, FrieslandCampina, Valio, Danone and Lactalis. Foreign dairy companies have helped us up our game in the US.

Where do you see the future of the US dairy industry?

I see the future of the US dairy industry as a global one. Over 20 years ago, just 5% of US dairy production was exported. That has since tripled to 15%. We’re targeting dairy exports to rise to 20% of production over the next five to 10 years. Dairy consumption in the US is growing but US cow productivity is growing faster. Without the export market there would need to be a contraction in US dairy output.

What is your outlook for milk prices in 2018?

Our forecast for the early part of 2018 is that milk price is not looking very good. The terrible price of skimmed powder (SMP) is dragging dairy markets down. We think milk prices will weaken to below the $8/hu (15c/l) baseline set out in the margin protection programme.

How are US dairy farmers tackling environmental challenges?

In the US, we have the Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) programme, which prioritises animal welfare, antibiotic stewardship and environmental stewardship. About 98% of US dairy farms are now enrolled in the FARM programme. The carbon footprint of US dairy has declined by almost two thirds (-63%) over the last 60 years. Antimicrobial residue violations in milk and meat has fallen 27% since 2013 and it is four years since antibiotics were found in US milk.