What’s the mood among US farmers today?

Right now, US farmers are not making enough money to be profitable. Farmgate profits are not where we need them to be due to weak commodity prices. And that’s not just low corn (maize) and soya bean prices. It’s across the board for all farming sectors in the US right now. Farm profits really need to increase in 2019.

What’s the outlook for commodity prices in 2019?

I wouldn’t say there’s a huge amount of optimism on prices for 2019 but farmers are feeling better than neutral on where prices could go. A lot depends on the supply side. 2018 was another very productive year in the US in terms of corn and soya production so farmers are only adding more to the supply tanks, which obviously doesn’t help farmgate prices. However, we’ve seen some production pressures elsewhere which has offset some of that production pressure.

Is there consolidation of US farms?

There’s no doubt about it that farms are consolidating in the US right now. And that’s not just because of low prices. Urbanisation is taking the next generation off the farm and young people are working in higher-tech sectors. This is taking talent out of the rural areas and leaving less of the next generation to take on farming. Huge numbers of jobs in the US agri sector are going unfilled because of the talent drain from rural areas. And these aren’t jobs that can be filled by migrant labour. These are jobs that require a four-year degree in university.

What impact has President Trump had on US agriculture?

The Trump administration has brought farmers more optimism around fewer regulations and a few less hoops to jump through. However, some of the trade disputes have certainly caused concern for farmers, particularly in relation to our trading relationship with China, which is such an important buyer of US soya beans. Before Christmas, President Trump announced an agreement with China that restored some confidence. So the trade picture for the US has become very fluid.

What consumer trends do you see in the US food industry?

It seems like there are a few different dietary shifts going on among US consumers right now. On the one hand you have diets such as paleo, which is a high-protein diet. You then have diets such as keto, which is more of a Mediterranean diet based around high fats. Some diets promote dairy and then others exclude it. In dairy, we’ve seen a definite shift away from whole milk towards skimmed milk or non-fat milks. There’s certainly been a big uptake in consumption of non-dairy alternatives such as almond, cashew, soya alternatives. These products continue to take shelf space.

How much funding is going into the US ag-tech sector every year?

Venture capital is pumping anywhere from $5bn to $6bn into ag-tech every year. However, we haven’t really seen any big exits from those investments just yet. A few years ago we had Climate Corp, which was bought by Monsanto for $1bn. John Deere bought Blue River technologies for $300m, while DuPont bought Granular for around $300m. But that’s about it in terms of high-profile ag-tech deals. I think a lot of the technology developed by the ag-tech sector has been focused on the farmer but with corn prices at $3.50/bushel the farmer doesn’t have a lot of money to spend on new technology.