EU cereal production for this year (2019/2020) is expected to reach 312 million tonnes (Mt) despite an exceptionally hot and dry summer in many places. This marks an increase of over 12Mt from 2018 levels.

Wheat and barley production are both expected to increase, reaching 145Mt (a 12.5% increase compared with 2018/19) and 61Mt (a 10% rise compared with last year) respectively.

Short-term outlook

The figures were released in the European Commission’s latest short-term outlook report for EU agricultural markets.

These market forecasts relate to the EU28, as, at the time of the publication, the UK was still a member of the union.

The report outlines that maize was the only crop that appears to be significantly affected by the drought, with production expected to go down by 4%, to 66.5Mt.

EU oilseed production is expected to reach a seven-year low in 2019/20 at 29.7Mt, due to adverse planting conditions.

Warm and dry crop conditions during summer 2019

Weather conditions have been diverse across the EU, with high temperatures from central-eastern to western EU, and significant rainfall in southeastern EU, as well as in Ireland and the UK.

Several heatwaves and prolonged dry weather had impacted the development of summer crops from June to August, with temperatures close to record levels (over 40°C in France and the Benelux).

Several heatwaves and prolonged dry weather had impacted the development of summer crops.

In other regions in Spain and Poland, light rainfalls did not compensate for the lack of water, but, in Ireland and the British Isles, as well as some parts of France and Greece, crops benefitted from significant rainfall over the summer.

Global grain production on the rise

World grain production is expected to reach 2.2 billion tonnes in 2019/2020. This represents a 0.7% increase above last year. This growth is driven mainly from the biggest wheat and barley producing regions.

Maize was the only crop that appears to be significantly affected by the drought.

Wheat: The report details that global wheat output is growing in all regions of the world, with a 4% increase year on year. The US is expected to reach 54Mt (+5%) and Russia 74Mt (+3%). Barley output is expected to increase as well to 155Mt (+10%).

Maize was the only crop that appears to be significantly affected by the drought.

Maize: Maize crop has been suffering from adverse weather conditions, either at the time of sowing (in the US and Ukraine) or during the growing period (EU). The global output is expected to contract by 3% compared with last year. Nevertheless, stocks are still quite high.

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