While beef prices in NI continue to face some downward pressure, the situation is different in Britain, where prices have been on the rise in recent weeks.

Base prices on offer in NI have eased this week, with mid-week cattle quotes on 348p to 356p/kg, and with fewer price deals on offer.

However, in Britain prices remain firm, with the same UK farm-assured, U-grading animals securing 385p/kg in England and up to 395p/kg in Scotland.

This makes U3 steers worth an additional 30p to 40p/kg in Britain, which equates to an extra £114 to £152 on a 380kg carcase.

However, sources within the local trade suggest that the current flush of cattle coming onto the market is a short-term trend. Last weeks’ total cattle kill of 9,083 head was the largest weekly kill in NI since April.

Supplies are expected to tighten within the coming weeks, as more cattle are housed and the availability of grass-finished cattle falls.

That is confirmed by figures from the Livestock and Meat Commission (LMC), which show that the number of cattle between 24 and 30 months and destined for beef production is 2% lower when compared with 2017 levels.

There is also a 4% reduction in the number of beef cattle aged 18 to 24 months when compared with last year.

Combining both totals, it means there are just over 8,000 less cattle to be slaughtered this winter, the equivalent of a weekly NI kill.

However, so far in 2018 an extra 7,000 cattle have been killed when compared with 2017. The 2018 total to date of 320,112 head is the highest it has been at this stage over the last seven years.

This higher throughput has mainly come from domestic cattle supplies and has been driven by the recent expansion in the NI dairy herd. Imports of slaughter cattle from the Republic of Ireland have collapsed this year, with just over 3,300 cattle imported for the year to date, compared with 9,700 for the same period in 2017.

Imports of slaughter cattle from Britain are also down on last year, while exports of NI cattle to Britain are marginally higher.

Brexit

Looking ahead to the new year, sources in the trade have expressed concern about the uncertainty caused both by high meal prices and by a potential no-deal Brexit. If Irish beef imports are hit with tariff barriers after 29 March, local finishers might wait to offload until after that date.

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