The entire beef industry is looking to the Christmas sales season with much anticipation.

Factories are hopeful that retail promotions offering significant discounts will boost traditional Christmas sales and help clear a backlog in supplies.

The picture could not be more in contrast with 12 months ago, when sales of beef were thriving and prices were increasing, which in turn fuelled higher throughput in the lead-in to Christmas.

The kill has stepped up another notch in 2018, but, in contrast with last year, is meeting an EU market that has been more sluggish, partly due to higher production and beef imports, plus a British trade that has weakened in recent weeks.

The scale of the increase is very visible when we look at throughput over the last three years.

Throughput for the 15-week period since 1 September has averaged 38,800 head.

This compares with 37,564 for the corresponding period in 2017 or a cumulative increase of 18,543 head.

The increase is even sharper if we compare with 2016 levels, with the kill averaging 34,818 and extra throughput of 59,730 head in the 15-week period.

Purchasing activity is winding down and some plants are having to contend with disruptions to normal processing.

This is because of industrial action by temporary veterinary inspectors, which is adding to a backlog in some cases.

Prices are unchanged, with steers trading on a base of €3.75/kg and heifers on €3.85/kg.

There is little variation from these prices, which are running about 10c/kg to 12c/kg behind the corresponding week in 2017.

The category facing the greatest lead-in time from booking to processing is young bulls.

Factories are concentrating mainly this week on handling supplies from specialist finishers with whom they have strong links to, but even this approach is not sufficient to clear all bulls that are fit for slaughter.

Farmers with small numbers are facing delays rising to two to three weeks.

O grading bulls are trading on average from €3.50/kg to €3.60/kg, while R grades range from €3.70/kg to €3.75/kg and U grades are from €3.80/kg to €3.85/kg.

This excludes bonus payments paid to specialist finishers.

Fat cover and carcase weight remain two major factors determining price, with plants much more strict on a fat score of 2+ or better, while carcase weight limits are set anywhere from 400kg for bulls less than 16 months to 420kg to 450kg depending on the factory purchasing.

Bulls less than 16 months are not exempt from processing delays, with the base price ranging from €3.70/kg to €3.75/kg.

The cow trade is steady. P+3 grading cows are moving between a price range of €2.60/kg and €2.75/kg, while the majority of fleshed O grades are securing between €2.80/kg and €2.90/kg.

There is a wide differential in R grades, which range anywhere from €2.90/kg to €3.15/kg.

U grades are selling mainly from €3.20/kg to €3.35/kg, but capable of rising 5c/kg to 10c/kg higher in cow-specialist plants for top-quality cows.

Northern trade

The northern trade is steady, with base U-3 steer and heifer quotes ranging from £3.36/kg at the bottom of the market to £3.42/kg to £3.46/kg at the higher end of the market.

This is the equivalent of €3.73/kg to €3.82/kg at 90p to the euro and €3.93/kg to €4.03/kg including VAT at 5.4%.

The downward trend in British beef prices continues, with last week’s price falling 2.7p/kg. R4L steer and heifer prices average £3.66/kg and £3.63/kg (€4.25/kg and €4.29/kg)respectively..

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