The latest Department of Agriculture Animal Identification and Movement (AIM) profile for 1 April 2018 shows continued growth in Ireland’s dairy herd.

The number of dairy cows increased by 56,374 head to reach 1,518,146 head. Records in the AIM profile go back to 2014 and show a massive increase of 285,331 dairy cows from 1 April 2014 to 1 April 2018.

As detailed in Table 2, the number of dairy heifers in the six-month to 30-month age bracket reduced by 17,073. However, this decrease can be attributed to greater use of beef sires in the dairy herd in recent years, with the number of beef-sired heifers in the same age bracket increasing by 37,060 head. This statement is also backed up when analysing the number of dairy and beef-sired males aged between six and 30 months. There are 30,047 fewer dairy-sired cattle and this is balanced out by 29,534 additional beef-sired animals.

This means there is no major changes in the overall number of male animals, as reflected in Table 3, although there are some significant changes within age brackets. There were 6,330 fewer male animals in the 12- to 18-month age category on 1 April and 18,257 fewer males in the 18- to 24-month age bracket. While calf births have increased steadily in recent years, this was offset by a 28,859 head increase in live calf exports (101,567 head) in 2017 and an 11,293 head increase in cattle exports to Turkey (30,562). The lower throughput in this category points to tighter supplies of male cattle down the line.

This is in contrast with the 24- to 30-month and 30- to 36-month age categories, which recorded an increase of 18,446 and 4,856 head respectively. The higher numbers in these categories also go some way in explaining the higher steer kill of late, with steer throughput up 5,825 head since 1 April, with over 4,000 of this increase coming in the last three weeks.

Looking closer at the number of beef-sired heifers on farms on 1 April 2018 shows 21,928 extra head in the 12- to 18-month age bracket, which, as stated earlier, is stemming from dairy-crosses. There were 7,308 extra heifers in the 24- to 30-month age category, while there was just shy of 7,000 more heifers aged three to four years. The higher number in the 12- to 18-month bracket will offset some of the reduction in male cattle numbers, but it will not fully compensate, with carcase weights also likely to be lower due to the influence of dairy genetics.

Suckler cows decline

An increase of 14,720 suckler cows in the three- to four-year-old age category failed to halt decline in the sector, with the total number of suckler cows falling by 24,875 head. The greatest decline was in cows aged over eight and a half years, with 12,597 fewer cows on farms on 1 April.

Beef price pressure

Meanwhile, factories continue to try to insert some downward pressure on beef prices. Their success in reducing the base price for steers from €4.20/kg to €4.15/kg and heifers from €4.30/kg to €4.25/kg remains variable. There are some deals involving smaller numbers at the lower base, while regular sellers and those with large numbers on hand are continuing to have success in negotiating the extra 5c/kg. Supplies also appear to be tightening, with the number of shed-finished cattle reducing.

Bulls

Bull prices are largely steady, with U grading bulls trading from €4.20/kg to €4.25/kg. There are some specialist finishers securing a 5c/kg to 10c/kg price premium, but exceeding €4.25/kg has been more difficult in recent days. R grades are trading from €4.15/kg to €4.20/kg, while O grading bulls are selling from €3.90/kg to €4.00/kg, with fat cover having a big influence on price. Bulls less than 16 months and trading on the grid are moving at a mixed base price of €4.15/kg to €4.20/kg. This excludes the 12c/kg QPS bonus for in-spec stock.

Cows

Cows continue to feel the greatest brunt of recent price pressure, with quotes hit with another 5c/kg to 10c/kg reduction. Plants are trying to purchase O grading cows for less than €3.60/kg while also reducing quotes for P+3 grading cows to €3.40/kg to €3.45/kg. There are still specialist finishers securing higher, with R and U grading cows remaining in good demand.

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