British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out his ‘take it or leave it’ Brexit plan to the EU.

Designed to replace the Irish backstop elements of the original withdrawal agreement, it proposes a transition period ending in 2021, after which Northern Ireland (NI) would be aligned to EU single market rules for agricultural and industrial goods for a period of four years.

Because NI is following EU rules, it effectively gets around the need for sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) controls, so that would automatically reduce trade friction across the Irish border.

Customs checks

However, NI would remain in the UK customs union, necessitating customs checks in Ireland.

Longer-term, if there is a comprehensive free trade agreement done between the UK and EU, the British hope this would effectively allow frictionless trade to occur.

But a government at Stormont could opt out of the arrangement in 2025, and decide instead to follow UK rules, which would mean a hardening of the border. There are also goods moving from Britain to NI, which would have to be checked.

Undermined

The proposed solution does not work for farmers across the island. Outside of SPS checks, tariffs stop trade across the Irish border, and if the UK pursues free trade deals with the US or South America, the once valuable British market will be undermined.