As the fallout from Brexit continues, we are starting to get some insight into how those with influence are going to react. From a farmer’s perspective, by far the most concerning comments this week came from German vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel. In the wake of Brexit and a potential EU budget deficit, Gabriel is calling for a substantial cut to the Common Agricultural Policy budget and a reduction in the number of European Commissioners.

Prior to relinquishing the EU presidency, the Danes also signalled a desire to reduce the CAP budget ahead of the next reform.

Ireland now needs to start building political alliances in defence of CAP and indeed the refocusing of the budget towards supporting production.

At the Bord Bia Brexit briefing on Wednesday, the challenges facing the Irish food sector were highlighted. Clearly the immediate concern remains currency exchange rates – the 16% increase in the value of the euro against sterling is undoubtedly causing challenges for the SME sector. However, what was clear from the conference is that our large agri-food businesses have access to a range of hedging mechanisms – reinforcing claims by the IFA that beef factories are seizing on Brexit to simply buy stock cheaper.

The real issue is what happens long term. As Eoin Lowry reports on pages 24 and 25, there was a general consensus that the UK was heading for recession with retail sales forecast to decline by 3% – twice that experienced during the financial crisis in 2009. A scenario of falling retail sales combined with higher-priced imports from the EU due to a weak euro is going to put further pressure on an already difficult UK retail sector. From a farmer’s perspective, the concern is that retail margins will be protected either by pushing the food manufacturer to lower the prices paid to primary producers or looking beyond Europe for imports.

The interesting topic of trying to cut out waste from the supply chain was also discussed, with the point raised that retail specifications in many cases were driving up production and processing costs. This is especially relevant in the context of ongoing discussions around carcase weights and bulls versus steers.

Meanwhile, Bord Bia is confident that our investment in building quality assurance will stand us in good stead if we are confronted ultimately by cheap British imports from outside the EU.

There is validity in this view because we have managed to withstand competition from cheaper EU alternatives such as Poland and eastern European countries thanks to our suckler-based QA beef.

While this work is essential, there isn’t enough to give farmers, particularly suckler and beef producers, confidence in the long-term future. If the UK embraces a cheap food policy, in spite of Bord Bia’s best efforts, our beef sector is the most exposed of all the sectors with the potential of facing competition in the British market from regions where prices are the equivalent of €2.30/kg to €2.60/kg.

Dealing with this would need a combination of measures not in use since the 1990s, including direct EU and national government farmer support, reintroduction of third country export refunds and further protection from external trade deals by the EU.

Now is the time for all political channels to be mounting intense pressure both at national and EU level to secure the safeguards that should the worst-case scenario play out, Irish farmers will not be left totally exposed.