A study analysing the implications of emerging UK agriculture and food policy post-Brexit unveils a very challenging environment for agriculture and the food industry in Northern Ireland.

The study was completed by Con Lucey, chief economist of the Irish Farmers Association (IFA) from 1979 to 2008 and member of the International and European Affairs (IIEA) UK expert group.

Northern Ireland’s farming and food industry will be extremely vulnerable in any post-Brexit future

It highlights how the agricultural bill published last year by the UK government includes a phasing out of some €4bn of current CAP direct payments and replacement with a very limited environmental scheme. Furthermore, it points to no funding commitment from the UK government beyond the end of the current parliament.

Detrimental

Such a move would be detrimental, with the report stating: “Northern Ireland’s farming and food industry will be extremely vulnerable in any post-Brexit future, as farmers in the land-based sectors, beef, dairy, lamb and cereals are almost totally dependent on the current levels of direct payments from the EU for their survival.”

Con Lucey, author of the report.

In addition to the prospect of lower direct payments, Northern Irish farmers would also face lower prices for their produce if the UK implements its proposed tariff regime. “The impact of a no-deal Brexit on the UK market is likely to differ by sector, and depends on a wide range of factors including prices in major food exporting countries, but it is probable that food prices in the UK are likely to be lower and more volatile as a result of Brexit.”

Sheep

Northern sheep farmers would be particularly exposed, with greater than 50% of output processed by southern factories. “In a no-deal scenario, exports from Northern Ireland to Ireland will face the full EU tariffs, and Ireland will be compelled under EU law to implement all EU import controls.”

The report also surmises little opportunity for farmers to diversify to other farming systems or non-farming alternatives, citing low farm incomes, farm size, land quality and location constraints in Northern Ireland as limiting factors.

Major implications

While the study describes the future UK policy on agriculture and food emerging in a piecemeal and not joined-up process, it says “the broad thrust of the post-Brexit UK agriculture and food policy is emerging. The policy will have major implications for Ireland’s access to, and return from, the UK food market. It will also pose major problems for the current highly integrated agri-food sector on the island of Ireland.”

The Irish beef sector in particular is expected to suffer greatly from the potential loss of the UK market.

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