Major political events are now almost a daily affair in Westminster, and while they are normally of little interest to farmers, they are currently deciding the fate of the industry.

Whatever is ultimately decided will determine the access to the UK market for Irish farmers. Similarly for UK farmers, access to the EU market will be decided by whatever future relationship is decided on.

There is always some comfort for farmers if they are in a market that is undersupplied, as is the case in the UK with the exception of sheep meat.

The difficulty, however, is what price farm produce commands in a changed environment outside the protection of the EU customs barrier. The choice for the UK Government post-Brexit is to trade with WTO tariffs which would boost the value of domestic beef production, or reduce, even eliminate tariffs altogether.

The latter option poses a real threat to UK farmers, as it opens the British market to the lowest-cost exporters from across the world.

Post-Brexit standards

If the decision is taken to open the UK market to all comers, the remaining barrier to access is whatever standards the UK Government decides to follow. Just as is the case in manufacturing industry, there are basically two global standards that are followed – US and EU.

There are conflicting signals within the UK Government about which standard they would follow post-Brexit

On agricultural produce, the EU has a precautionary principle which means no use of hormones and limited use of lactic acid for carcase washing.

The USA, on the other hand, allows both and has in the past successfully challenged the EU ban on these in the court of the WTO.

Mixed signals

There are conflicting signals within the UK Government about which standard they would follow post-Brexit, just as there is with just about everything related to Brexit.

The minister with responsibility for Agriculture, Michael Gove, is adamant that existing standards on production, welfare and the environment will be maintained, perhaps even enhanced.

Others, such as the minister with responsibility for trade, Liam Fox, are less committed, signalling that he is perfectly satisfied with US production standards.

He in particular will be very conscious that the US has been categorical in saying that in any free-trade negotiation between the US and UK post-Brexit, adopting US standards for agricultural production would be a prerequisite.

Price impact of future imports

Aside from standards, the other big concern for UK farmers is what price they will achieve if Ireland is no longer the main supplier of imported beef. Prices in Brazil and Argentina are currently below £2/kg (just above €2/kg).

Given supermarket and burger chain publicity about their commitment to British farming, we can expect that a full range of British produce will continue to be available on their shelves but at what price?

If the imported option is available alongside at a much lower price, the British offering would still command a premium but the premium would be on top of a much lower base and therefore likely to be much lower than at present.

Sheep producers

While UK beef farmers will have a market, the value of which will be decided by the Government approach to post-Brexit tariffs, the picture is much gloomier for sheep producers. All of the UK regions are major sheep meat exporters, none more so than Northern Ireland, who sent almost half of their lamb crop, 423,000 lambs and hoggets, to southern factories last year for processing.

The UK is currently the third-largest sheep meat exporter in the world after Australia and New Zealand, who have 70% of the world’s exports between them.

With a tariff of £35 or €38 for a typical live lamb and a proportionate amount on lamb carcases and cuts, this trade will be wiped out.