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There will be little or no upside for Northern Ireland dairy farmers irrespective of what type of Brexit arrangement arrives.
That was the message from Michael Haverty, senior agricultural economist with The Andersons Centre, at a conference on Northern Ireland dairy conference on Thursday.
The conference entitled Planning for a Future in Dairy was organised by the Ulster Farmers Union in partnership with the Irish Farmers Journal.
Watch an interview with the UFU's dairy policy specialist Chris Osborne:
Haverty presented analysis to the farmers and industry representatives at the event that predicted reductions in farmer margins post-Brexit.
The reductions are expected to be caused by the higher cost of border compliance and perhaps a reduced subsidy payment.
Ian McCluggage of CAFRE said benchmarking 2016-2017 results showed the average gross margin per cow was £800, with the top 10% over £1,100 per cow.
Similarly, the average net margin was £280/cow, moving to £660/cow for the top 10%. McCluggage emphasised for 2016 when milk price was on the floor the net profit per cow allowing for a small value on family labour was down to around £100/cow.
As farmers struggle to get slurry out before the spreading deadline this weekend, soil scientist John Bailey laid bare the facts around the phosphorus and nitrogen loading on Northern Ireland farms.
Bailey explained that fewer than 10% of farms complete soil samples and additional application of phosphorus to fields that are high in phosphorus index must stop. He challenged the farmers to get better at measurement and get better at using the soil test results to spread phosphorus on low-phosphorus (P) fields.
He also suggested the P content of feed must be lowered and less feed must be purchased.
Joe Patton and Laurence Shalloo from Teagasc along with Chris Osborne from the Ulster Farmers Union outlined the positives and challenges of moving the milk price payment for Northern Ireland farmers from the current differential plus solids to a milk solids only payment.
All three emphasised the long-term benefits for farmers and processors.
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