The recent controversy around an emergency fund for tillage farmers may well have a significant impact on the shape of the discussions around the next CAP, if not the CAP itself.

The ever-tightening margins in many sectors, not just tillage, mean that a single disastrous year, where production or price is walloped, could sink many family farms. For this reason, expect to see proposals around some form of insurance or deficiency payments.

They are the basis of farmer support in the US, along with a “food-stamp” system that supports consumer demand and retail prices. When yields harvested fall below a certain trigger, a payment kicks in. Similarly, if prices fall below a base price threshold, per tonne price supports are enacted.

The upside is that the worst vagaries of weather and price volatility are removed. The downside is that money invested in the insurance schemes would not be available for direct supports to farmers. This would mean cuts to some or all of the current schemes.

With the gap yawning between dairy and drystock incomes, pressure for coupled suckler and sheep payments is likely. The next CAP may be shaped by the realisation that different sectors have different requirements.

Or we could see dairy farmers join with tillage farmers in calling for payments to producers triggered by poor prices. Which is exactly where this article started. Discussions around the CAP are similarly likely to go around in circles for the next two years.

Unless Irish farmers and the Government can form a consensus on what to look for and prioritise during negotiations, it’s hard to be optimistic about the outcome. You can’t get what you want unless you know what you want.

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CAP 2020: what might it look like?

If we had to call it today...

Full series: CAP 2020