With the public consultation complete, European Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan and his team are now drafting a CAP that will get maximum buy-in from the 27 member states.

At first glance, it will be a battle between environment and farming, against the backdrop of a budget under pressure from Brexit and competing budgetary priorities.

However, there was widespread recognition in the consultation and at the open forum in Brussels on 7 July that agriculture needs support, and that it is in the wider EU’s interest to provide it.

There is also a recognition in farming circles that protection of the environment is part of the plan. The catchphrase used by the Commissioner describes farmers as the “boots on the ground” that deliver environmental services in rural areas.

We can expect an even stronger focus on environmental controls in the next CAP, but it will continue to be farming-focused. While the Council of Ministers will make ultimate decisions, the Agriculture Commissioner shapes the framework.

Farmers are fortunate that the man currently in charge, Phil Hogan, has a deep understanding of farming.

He has been a robust advocate for agriculture to date and is recognised for his ability to build alliances within the Commission to protect agriculture’s interests.

As this will be Hogan’s CAP, we can take clues from the speeches in which he set his priorities late last year.

These can be classified under the headings of market resilience, sustainable production and generational renewal.

With the crisis in milk prices in 2016 fresh in his mind, he bemoaned the limited toolkit the EU had to address market problems, in his speech to the Outlook Conference in December last year.

We can, therefore, expect a broadening of EU tools that could include an element of farmer income insurance. However, the high cost of insurance in the US experience may curb EU enthusiasm for this.

There could also be parallel moves to develop a futures market for agricultural produce in the EU. This connects with the issues raised by the EU’s Agricultural Markets Taskforce on farmers’ disadvantaged position in the food chain.

The Commissioner is also adamant that farmers will have to do more for the environment in the next CAP, although he has secured recognition from Commissioners Karmenu Vella in Environment and Miguel Canete in Climate Action and Energy on the importance of agricultural production. Farmers can expect a demanding environmental component, but a parallel recognition of the importance of food production.

The Agriculture Commissioner is also particularly interested in getting new blood into farming, so it would be no surprise if the 2020 CAP makes an attempt at encouraging ageing farmers to hand over control to younger family members or new entrants.

Macra na Feirme’s proposals along these lines have been widely distributed in the Commission.

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