Despite COVID-19, 2020 will be another record year for Chinese beef, sheep and pigmeat imports. Up to end of October, China imported 1.75m tonnes of beef compared to 1.3m in the same period in 2019 and 830,000t between January and October 2018.

Pigmeat imports have increased dramatically because of the loss of Chinese production caused by African Swine Fever (ASF). Imports between January and October 2020 have surged to 3.5m tonnes, compared with 1.5m tonnes in the same period in 2019, according to Chinese customs import data.

South American countries are consolidated as the main suppliers of beef, Australia and New Zealand supply the sheepmeat and the US is back in the market as a major supplier of pigmeat. It has been a disappointing year for Ireland, with beef exports suspended since the discovery of an isolated BSE case in May. Pigmeat exports were also disrupted because of COVID-19 in an exporting factory, though these subsequently resumed.

Beef

According to ABIEC, which represents Brazil’s meat exporting industry, the country will export over 2m tonnes of beef in 2020 – a record – having reached 1.84m tonnes by the end of November. This makes Brazil the world’s top beef exporting country by quite a distance and the growth has been driven by demand from China.

Up to the end of October, China had imported 688,659t of beef from Brazil, 40 % of its total beef imports and a massive increase on the 278,373t supplied by Brazil in the same period in 2019.

Argentina is China’s next largest beef supplier, with 389,980t of Argentinian beef imported between January and October 2020, up from 283,735t from the same period in 2019. China imported 226,250t from Australia to the end of October 2020, a drop on the 249,447t supplied in the same period in 2019. This is due to a combination of less supply in Australia, as the herd is rebuilt because of drought, and the suspension of four major Australian export factories by the Chinese government.

Both New Zealand and Uruguay exports are lower and Ireland has been out of the picture since May. The US has become re-established with the 16,000t supplied to the end of October, more than twice 2019 exports.

Sheepmeat

China has also transformed the global sheepmeat market in recent years. Up until 2018, the EU was New Zealand’s main export market, but it is now China. For the year ending 30 September 2020, New Zealand exported 136,209t of lamb and a further 62,253t of mutton to China, compared with 87,509t of lamb plus just over 2,000t of mutton to the EU and UK combined. New Zealand has a 228,000 sheepmeat quota for the EU and UK combined and it has now become a regular occurrence for this not to be fully used.

Australia is the other major global sheepmeat exporter, exporting 366,417t between January and November 2020, a 13% decline on the previous year due to the flock rebuilding.

China was also its main market at 106,286t, though this is 23% lower than the same period in 2019 because of reduced supply and approval issues with some exporting factories. Australia exported 71,563t of sheepmeat to the US, 23,382t to Malaysia and 20,547t to the UAE, but just 12,823t to the EU because unlike New Zealand, it has a very small 19,000t tariff-free quota for the EU market.

Pigmeat

China’s import of 3.5m tonnes of pigmeat in the first 10 months of 2020 compared with 1.5m in the same period last year is driven by absence of domestic supply, caused by ASF. Spain is the top supplier with 705,000t, with the US second on 614,00t, a dramatic increase on the 165,000t for 2019 and reflecting the resumption of trade following the agreement between the US and Chinese governments in January this year for a mini trade deal and cessation of the trade war between the two countries.

Ireland, despite having a major exporter suspended because of COVID-19, has increased its supply of pigmeat to China, from 40,972t January to October 2019 to 52,630t for the same period this year.