The announcement by British chancellor Philip Hammond that current levels of CAP funding will be maintained to 2020, even if the UK exits the EU before that date, provides some level of immediate short-term certainty for farmers, universities, etc, that avail of EU funding.

However, the announcement must be put into context. Guaranteeing payments to 2020 was a clear commitment given by pro-Brexit campaigners in the run-up to the EU referendum.

Also, it remains unknown just when the UK will actually leave the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May is yet to invoke Article 50, and while some think she will press the exit button early next year, others point to the current state of unpreparedness in government, and think it could still be at least 12 months away.

Once Article 50 is invoked, it will take at least two years to exit. With EU funding continuing until the UK formally leaves, the British government might have a shortfall of one or two years to make up to 2020. The bill is estimated at around £4.5bn per year, but should be set against the possible saving of around £8.5bn per year – the current net contribution of the UK to the EU.

Despite senior government figures voicing their dislike for the current system of direct payments to farmers based on land area, presumably the system will be left mainly as it is until 2020. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

What farming must not do is allow powerful environmental lobby groups to set the agenda as to a future system of support to farmers. The central argument is that with the UK just over 60% self-sufficient in food, a significant proportion of any money must be targeted at supporting productive and efficient farmers. Why leave food production to others, who might be producing food in a less environmentally sustainable way.