Brexit never ends. The UK general election takes place four weeks hence, on 12 December. Whatever the outcome, it will not bring clarity or early resolution to the uncertainties surrounding economic relations with the UK.

The most likely outcome is a Conservative victory and the return of a Boris Johnson-led government, but there will be some tactical voting against the Tories and Johnson could come up short.

If Corbyn assumes office, his stated policy is to seek a re-negotiation of the Johnson deal and then put it to a referendum, alongside a remain option

Based on their current stated positions, neither a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, nor a Johnson continuation, will “get Brexit done”, the prime minister’s election slogan.

If Corbyn assumes office, his stated policy is to seek a re-negotiation of the Johnson deal and then put it to a referendum, alongside a remain option. This would require another extension beyond the 31 January deadline currently in place. The re-negotiation would take many months, as would the organisation of the referendum, and there could hardly be a clear outcome during 2020.

If Corbyn secured a new withdrawal agreement and it passed at the referendum it would usher in the same process of negotiating a long-term free-trade agreement which arises anyway.

The subsequent election would be about Europe, with a Tory victory delivering Brexit II

Even a remain victory at a referendum and the revocation of the UK’s withdrawal would see the Conservative Party vow to re-open the issue at the first opportunity. The subsequent election would be about Europe, with a Tory victory delivering Brexit II.

Transition

If Johnson wins next month, there will be no quick outcome either. He has committed to exiting the transition period by the end of 2020, with no more extensions, which would require that the free-trade agreement be done and ratified, by all 27 EU parliaments and some regional parliaments. This timetable is impossible.

European Commissioner for Trade Phil Hogan has indicated that even the assembly of a negotiating team and mandate will not be in place until spring or summer, and the ratification process, even if there were instant agreement, would take up to six months.

Johnson’s timetable is pure fantasy

The free-trade agreements which the EU has negotiated with third countries typically take several years (the Canada deal took eight) and the deal with the UK would be the biggest ever undertaken. Johnson’s timetable is pure fantasy. It runs the risk of a chaotic exit from the transition period before a new arrangement is in place, not unlike the no-deal crash-out averted in parliament last month.

The attractions of a leave alliance for Farage were explicitly linked to the lack of realism in the prime minister’s declared intentions

The timetable fantasy, specifically the risk of an early end to the no-change transition by the end of 2020, was cited by the Brexit Party’s Nigel Farage on Monday when he promised to stand down many candidates in order to boost Johnson’s election chances. The attractions of a leave alliance for Farage were explicitly linked to the lack of realism in the prime minister’s declared intentions.

There is no long-term trade deal

Whoever becomes prime minister in mid-December will face the following reality: the UK has achieved, after three-and-a-half years, no more than a draft withdrawal agreement with the EU, settling a narrow range of divorce issues.

Even that withdrawal agreement has been divisive and does not enjoy consensus support in the UK. There is no long-term trade deal.

Credible trade experts worry that any such deal will be complex, controversial and will take several years to complete.

Fundamental delusion

In doing so they remind us of the fundamental delusion of Brexit, evident before the 2016 referendum, and still current in the general election debate. This is the seductive notion that Brexit is simple, Britain can just quit the EU after 46 years and life will go on unaffected.

Whatever the election outcome, Brexit will not be resolved for many years

This delusion has survived the trauma and division since the referendum and the failure to find uncontroversial terms for the withdrawal agreement, a small part of the overall equation.

Whatever the election outcome, Brexit will not be resolved for many years and the potential for a disorderly British departure, without a long-term trade deal, will rise if Johnson wins. It is futile to try to predict the course of events, other than to insist that he will not “get Brexit done” inside a few months.

Importantly for Ireland, it will mean regulatory divergence in agricultural trade

The long-term trade deal as envisaged by Johnson will be modelled on the deal with Canada, which means the UK’s exit from both the customs union and from the single market.

Importantly for Ireland, it will mean regulatory divergence in agricultural trade, which could close much of the British (but not the Northern Ireland) market for Irish exporters or leave it open but subject to tariffs.

The UK’s other ambition is to negotiate free-trade deals around the world in many of which the main concession it could offer would be access to the British market for food exporters.

The outcome which would constitute an unlikely win for Irish farmers and food processors would be a Corbyn victory, another referendum and a revocation of Brexit.

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