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The UK’s new Conservative government will enjoy both a large majority and a guaranteed five years in office. The date of the next election is already set for December 2024 since the fixed-term parliament law is still in place.
The Tories have 56.1% of the seats, a big bonus on their 43.6% vote share, a consequence of the first-past-the-post electoral system. Hung parliaments are the norm around Europe because of more proportional voting systems but the UK rules are designed to produce clear majorities and coalitions are rare.
Viewing figures for live coverage from Westminster will plunge and the government will win every vote with ease
Boris Johnson has cleansed his party of Remainers and his new majority will contain hardly any potential rebels. Viewing figures for live coverage from Westminster will plunge and the government will win every vote with ease.
The election was won with a three-word slogan, “Get Brexit Done”, reminiscent of the three-word misunderstanding which drove the Leave victory at the 2016 referendum, “Take Back Control”.
The fatal impression it created was that Brexit would be simple and the mistake has been repeated, since Johnson will not be getting Brexit done, in any sense that matters, any time soon.
EU relations
The UK will become an ex-member of the EU at the end of January but relations with Europe will dominate British politics as they did throughout the post-war period, initially in the form of negotiations with the EU which are likely to be protracted and could disappoint Leave supporters.
No travel irritations, there will be continued freedom of movement with no tariffs, quotas, customs delays or other non-tariff barriers
The presentation of Brexit as a simple and straightforward choice will initially be vindicated since nothing dramatic will happen on 1 February.
For a minimum of 11 months, there will be no changes to the trading arrangement and people will experience non-membership as no different from the recent past. No travel irritations, there will be continued freedom of movement with no tariffs, quotas, customs delays or other non-tariff barriers.
Only then does the UK become a third country, the same as Brazil or Russia, unless a long-term trade agreement has been negotiated and ratified.
The impression has been created in the UK that an agreement will readily be secured and that any failure to wrap it up quickly will be due to the EU’s unwillingness to be reasonable.
Agreement
No trade expert believes that a comprehensive agreement will be achieved during 2020 – the deal will be the broadest and most complex single free trade agreement ever negotiated by the EU and will take many years.
Negotiations will not commence until March and the first crisis point for Johnson will be reached in June rather than December.
The commitment worked, Farage stood down many of his candidates and this helped the Tory cause
It is open to the UK to seek an extension to the no-change transition period of up to two years beyond the end of 2020. But Johnson made a commitment during the election to forego this option, apparently to disarm the Brexit party of Nigel Farage, who preferred a no-deal crash-out, the purest form of Brexit. The commitment worked, Farage stood down many of his candidates and this helped the Tory cause.
In strategic terms this is nuts, a unilateral sacrifice of a potentially valuable option, and cynics have been taking comfort from Johnson’s record of shifting course. Don’t worry, he’s lying
It is unimaginable that any serious progress will have been made by June and Johnson will have to let the date pass without seeking an extension to avoid accusations of betrayal. In strategic terms this is nuts, a unilateral sacrifice of a potentially valuable option, and cynics have been taking comfort from Johnson’s record of shifting course.
Don’t worry, he’s lying. If he sticks to his commitment, he creates the prospect of a crash-out in December next year and a negotiating position, not great to begin with, further weakened by self-imposed deadlines.
Another headache for Johnson will be Scotland. The nationalists, who had a good election, have demanded a second independence referendum and the Tories have already refused. On Sunday Michael Gove, a senior minister, ruled out a second vote during the five-year term of the incoming parliament.
Brexit is seen by many in Scotland as an English nationalist project with Scotland forced out of the EU against the expressed will of the voters
The second vote, whenever it happens, is unpredictable anyway – people could opt to maintain the union as 55% did in September 2014 and the Brexit experience is double-edged for the pro-independence campaigners.
The Scots did not favour Brexit (62% voted Remain) and there is a desire to stick with Europe – Brexit is seen by many in Scotland as an English nationalist project with Scotland forced out of the EU against the expressed will of the voters. But the costs of independence go up when the UK quits the EU – imagine the complications of a land border which could also become an external border of the EU.
The Tories were unexpected winners of the 2015 general election, triggering the fateful 2016 plebiscite, whose narrow outcome is now written in stone
The UK was still attached to the EU back in 2014 and there was no certainty that any Brexit referendum would even happen. The Tories were unexpected winners of the 2015 general election, triggering the fateful 2016 plebiscite, whose narrow outcome is now written in stone. The urge for Scottish independence has grown, but so has the potential cost.
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