It is fair to say that autumn breeding sales have been underwhelming for some producers in the last couple of seasons.

A few of the standout breeding sales came close to reaching the highs of previous years in 2018, but were not immune to reduced demand that was tempered by a difficult spring, prolonged drought in parts of the country and higher costs.

The greatest distress in breeding sales was felt towards the lower end of the market, with the trade for plainer, small-framed and poorer-quality hoggets much more difficult than previous seasons.

All of the reasons outlined above had an effect, with some farmers opting to take stock of their numbers and curtail the number of replacements brought into the flock.

The same situation occurred following the 2013 fodder crisis, with the national ewe flock falling by 15,271 head from December 2012 to 2013, followed by a further decline of 38,226 ewes from December 2013 to 2014, which in turn was tracked by a period of flock recovery.

The other factor now thrown into the mix is more producers ceasing lambing ewes or operating with a smaller lambing flock and introducing a dry hogget enterprise.

Reduced returns

With supply exceeding demand, there were significant numbers of hoggets sold for less last autumn than they could potentially have sold for five to six months earlier, when demand was outstripping supply.

Many producers are now rightly weighing up what is the best route to market for 2018-born ewe lambs, with animals with questionable breeding credentials especially under the spotlight.

Figure 1 details the hogget price in the last three years, which also demonstrates that no two years can be taken as a given, with 2017 prices lagging behind the higher farmgate returns achieved in 2016.

Prospects for the first half of 2019 are favourable, with tight supplies and firm market demand likely to be a strong feature of the trade.

If we look at the hogget price in 2018, it shows that hogget prices exceeded €6.00/kg for a significant period of time dating from mid-March to the end of May and peaking at €6.20/kg to €6.30/kg for the Easter market.

Hoggets that achieved a carcase weight of 22kg to 23kg generated a sales value at the top of the market of €130 to €145, while lighter hoggets delivering a carcase weight of 20kg were still capable of grossing a return of €120 or higher.

Making assumptions on price always comes with a certain degree of risk.

This is relevant for both the trade this spring and also for breeding sales next autumn.

Even so, it is still prudent to review your system from time to time and ask if it is in the best position to take advantage of strong market demand or equally insulate itself against the potential of a weaker autumn breeding trade.

Early decisions

While we are still some time away from peak demand, because Easter falls later in 2019 (21 April), now is the time for producers to start assessing their options.

Early action will allow plans to be put in place to capitalise on the mild winter and push on hoggets that may be deemed surplus to requirements while they may be in relatively good condition.

Every farm situation will differ, with some farms tied into retaining numbers to meet stocking rate requirements for the Areas of Natural Constraint or to contribute to the reference number under the Sheep Welfare Scheme.

The key message where the plan is to sell on these hoggets next autumn is to retain sheep that are likely to attract good demand from sellers and have a better potential of covering direct costs.

The cost of feeding dry ewe hoggets from now until September is likely to be in the range of €25 to €30 per head.

This includes an allocation of €10 for silage and a small volume of meal if required from January to mid-March and a grass cost in the region of €15 per head from mid-March to September.

Other costs, such as veterinary and net shearing, could be in the region of €2 to €5 per head, with a significant percentage of veterinary costs likely to be accounted for at this stage.

Finishing lambs

There will also be costs in getting lambs to slaughter condition.

These will depend on the starting weight and condition of hoggets, grass supplies and the volume of concentrates fed.

Where lambs have developed a good frame, then a short-term feeding programme should suffice.

Where lambs are starting at a lower base with a small frame, then there will be a higher feeding cost.

Table 1 details concentrate supplementation costs, taking variable meal costs and different levels of feeding into account.

For some farmers with a low reserve of grass or poor-quality silage, the best and most economical option is to build lambs on to an intensive finishing diet. For others, a better option may be to target finishing lambs off grass in March and April.

The third option which should also be looked at is the mart store trade, with specialist finishers and farmers boosted by higher than normal grass supplies and good forage crops increasing purchasing activity as sales resume.

Where building lambs on to an intensive finishing diet, concentrate formulation and feed management are central to achieving high levels of animal performance.

The focus for most finishing diets at this stage of the year should be on energy content over protein content.

Well-grown lambs will perform adequately with a protein content of 11% to 12%, while growing lambs will benefit from 13% to 14% protein content, rising to 16% for very light lambs (less than 30kg) with a lot of growing still to do.

Most farmers will be purchasing formulated ration or pelleted concentrates, but, for some, there will be an option to source straights.

Maize meal represents better value for money than barley and this, along with higher availability, is the reason behind higher inclusion levels in feeds this winter.

Soya hulls and beet pulp are also good balanced energy and fibre options, but, again, may be hard to source.

Distillers grains is another relatively good feed and oats can be used as a safe bet with a higher fibre content but lower energy level than the other cereals.

Soya bean meal is the best protein source, but is expensive. Rapeseed has a role in some diets.

However, it should be limited due to a lower energy content and palatability issues where inclusion rates approach 20%.

Where lambs are on a high concentrate diet, it is recommended to build up to ad-lib levels over a 10-day to two-week period and where getting a ration formulated to also feed male lambs include ammonium chloride at 0.5% to prevent urinary calculi.