After the weekend summit of EU leaders, it is now down to cementing, in a legally precise form, what has been actually committed to by Britain on the three key areas that had to show sufficient progress before moving on to the key subject of the future relationship between the EU and the UK – money, the rights of EU citizens and the Irish question.

As Taoiseach Varadkar said, we are at the end of the beginning, but no more than that

The Irish issue may appear to be solved and the Irish Government’s insistence on not having a hard border has been copperfastened by the summit.

But the agreement makes provision for different arrangements whether the UK has a full trading relationship with the EU or not.

If it stays within the customs union and single market or has an equivalent “alignment” with them, then the future Irish dilemma is solved. But it is clear that Ireland cannot have a uniquely privileged trade relationship with the UK so if agreement between the EU and UK is not reached then we are into uncharted territory.

This possibility is envisaged in the agreement made between the Taoiseach and the British prime minister and endorsed by all 26 heads of government over the weekend but the actual solution is not clear – to put it at its mildest – at this stage.

But real progress is being made as reality dawns.

The UK now wants to participate in, and is willing to pay to take part in research programmes and the Erasmus educational initiative and will also be very willing to participate in joint security and intelligence operations. The whole exercise has so far been a huge learning experience for the British Brexit parliamentarians The two-year transitional period will allow some time for the realities to further sink in around what is possible around international trade and financial services.

As Taoiseach Varadkar said, we are at the end of the beginning, but no more than that. Up to now, the solidarity of the EU behind Ireland has been remarkable and is a tribute to the work put in by Government and civil service.

Mercosur

Meanwhile, as the Mercosur talks collapsed in Buenos Aires, the French president Emmanuel Macron insisted at the Brussels summit that the Commission did not have a free hand in the talks and EU agricultural interests must be protected. How much effect this shot across the Commission’s bows will have at this late stage will be interesting to see.

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