By far the most comprehensive and best-informed analysis of global agriculture and its development over the next 10 years is the just-published Outlook, compiled by the joint resources of the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

So, in the over 300 pages, what were the standout messages? The first was the general view that stability in the world’s capacity to produce sufficient food has been reached, future population growth will be the main driver of demand and this is likely to be met by increased productivity on the existing land base. Some extra land will be brought into production, but in percentage terms, the amount is small.

Higher-income countries are expected to consume less beef

Within the individual sectors, milk prices are expected to remain relatively strong, while beef and cereal prices are expected to continue declining slightly but continuously in real terms, ie after adjusting for inflation.

Higher-income countries are expected to consume less beef, with a swing to more poultry and fish, but mid-income countries are expected to increase beef consumption, which will more than balance out the decline elsewhere.

The report shows the changing consumer perception of butter and dairy fats

The distinction between the amount of income spent on food in higher- and lower-income societies is heavily illustrated. By 2029, it will be heading towards 6-7% of household income in the richest societies, versus 43% in low-income countries.

The report shows the changing consumer perception of butter and dairy fats, which are now seen as natural and desirable, while beef has a negative health connotation, despite what the report spells out as the nutritional benefits of red meat, adding to the move towards poultry. In fact, poultry is seen as one of the standout winners over the next decade, as consumers pursuing a meat-based diet for the first time will start with poultry, based on its value. As grain prices continue to decline, poultry and pig production will be increasingly profitable.

Beef output in Europe is expected to decline

Pig profits internationally have, the report points out, been boosted by the huge losses to the Chinese national herd after an outbreak of African swine fever and the report sees the deficit lasting until at least 2025, by which time pig farmers in China should have rebuilt their herds.

Beef output in Europe is expected to decline, with low suckler profitability and a slowly reducing dairy herd producing less beef. The report notes the unfavourable effects of the Mercosur trade deal on the Irish, French and Belgian beef sectors, but also mentions the possibility of the Irish Origin Green initiative paving the way for a specialised regional offering. Time will tell.

There are a lot of lessons for Irish policymakers in this report

The report avoids any emotional subjectivity, but points out the facts and what developments are likely.

For example, it foresees a lack of a policy that will encourage biofuels in Europe, organic production giving at least 20% lower yields than conventional crops and points out that increasing cereal productivity will depend on continuing the development and use of fertilisers, pesticides and plant breeding, including biotechnology.

There are a lot of lessons for Irish policymakers in this report, but also useful pointers for those hoping to influence policy in an era of greater national discretion.

Read more

The big interview with Janusz Wojciechowski: ‘Farmers are part of the solution’