The political scheming may have continued at Westminster this week following the publication of the UK White Paper last Friday, but in many ways it has been business as usual for the EU. Farmers Journal Scotland was on the ground in Brussels to gather the first impressions of EU officials and while there was no outpouring of enthusiasm, there was no instant dismissal either as had been the case with previous big-set piece occasions.

Would suit Scottish farmers

The paper would work for Scottish farmers looking to continue the export of lambs to the continent alongside a small quantity of high-value Scotch beef.

However by Monday evening, the principles of Chequers as expressed in the White Paper had been diluted by a series of amendments in Parliament and while Brussels hasn’t taken a position on either, the further the paper moves away from its original position, the less likely it is to fly in Brussels.

Starting point

Indeed the proposals in the White Paper would not in themselves have got through the negotiation process of the EU and were very much seen as a starting point for negotiations, rather than an endpoint. The reality is from a Brussels viewpoint is that while the debate goes on in the UK, no serious negotiation can take place in Brussels and all the time the clock is ticking towards 29 March 2019 and a no-deal Brexit becomes more likely.

WTO terms may still happen

If that comes to pass and trade is conducted on WTO terms it will be the end of Scotch lamb exports to France and other EU countries and the end for beef as well. On the other hand, any product coming into the UK from former EU countries such as Ireland would carry the same punitive tariffs and in the process leave the UK market under-supplied.

EU trade deal

Meanwhile there have been significant trade developments involving the EU and its member states this week. France joined Ireland in securing access to the Chinese market for beef with four factories approved. The three Irish factories approved in May have all commenced production for China, with one – Foyle Donegal – having its first delivery received in China earlier this week. ABP Clones has its first consignment in transit since last Friday and will ship several more containers in the coming days.

Dealing with China

China negotiates access on a country-by country-basis, not centrally with the EU. The UK is in the process of negotiating access with the lifting of the BSE ban secured recently seen as an important process which is expected to take another couple of years.

Negotiation of trade deals featured prominently in the news around the will-they or won’t-they approach of the USA to negotiate with the UK post-Brexit if the UK insists on retaining EU standards.

However in Brussels, the champagne was being cracked open to celebrate the signing of the EU-Japan free-trade deal, the largest ever undertaken by the EU. This will give the EU favourable access terms for a range of agri-produce with a progressively reducing tariff on beef prom the present 38% down to 9% over the next fifteen years.

Coincidentally, the UK has recently received an inspection visit from Japan and approval is expected soon. The FTA with Japan is expected to take effect provisionally from the first of January 2019 so Scottish farmers are likely to have a few weeks of benefit of the deal which is unlikely to be sufficient time to have a meaningful impact on the market.