Yet another report was produced in recent weeks highlighting the extent to which Irish agriculture and the Irish economy is exposed to Brexit. This time it was the turn of the EU’s directorate-general for internal policies.

The report shows the extent to which not all member states are equal when it comes to the impact of the UK leaving the EU. It forecasts a fall of 0.3% in GDP across the 27 remaining EU members. For the UK, it forecasts a 2.3% reduction in GDP. For Ireland, however, GDP is expected to fall by 3.4% – or about €54bn.

Along with Ireland’s close economic proximity, the exposure of our agri-food sector to the UK market is identified as the main reason the Irish economy is more exposed to Brexit than the UK. In the event of no deal being agreed and the UK defaulting to a WTO trade scenario, it is predicted that Irish food exports to the UK would fall by 70%.

Initially, the WTO option was seen as a doomsday scenario and unlikely to happen. However, given the lack of progress that has been achieved in negotiations to date, the WTO worst-case scenario can no longer be ruled out.

While ultimately this latest report reveals nothing new, it certainly reinforces what is at stake for Irish farmers and the Irish economy. The severity of the conclusions gives credibility to demands for the European Commission to put forward what tools and measures will be implemented to protect the income of Irish farmers in a hard Brexit.

Ireland has been identified by EU negotiators as one of the key priorities that has to be resolved before proceeding to discussing a future trading relationship with the UK. So far, there have been fine words to this effect but no tangible evidence of how priority would be given to Ireland – in particular our farmers.

To date, the Commission’s only response has been to rule out possible solutions such as the reintroduction of export refunds or measures to account for exchange rate volatility such as Monetary Compensatory Amounts (MCAs).

There is clearly a need for political pressure to be ramped up in this regard. It is not tenable for the European Commission to leave Irish farmers and the agri-food sector sitting on the sidelines of negotiations that have the potential to wipe out their industry without there being any safety net in place. At the very least, the EU should be putting forward intervention prices for exposed products that will prevent any market collapse.

Meanwhile, the findings of the report also raise the question as to whether or not the EU actually understands the implications of Brexit for rural Ireland in particular. It is easy to reach conclusions by studying spreadsheets and graphs that reflect the general picture for the entire country. What they do not do is reflect the concentrated impact that would be felt in rural areas that would result from a 70% drop in agri food exports into the UK.

With less than 500 days to go until the UK leaves the EU under whatever arrangements, Irish farmers deserve a degree of certainty. The priority Ireland is supposed to have in negotiations should be reflected in meaningful provision for the scenario outlined in this report, presented to the European Parliament’s agriculture committee. The tools do exist but there is a clear unwillingness to indicate an intention to use them.

Unfortunately, the agenda within parts of the Commission appears to be more aligned to trying to further undermine the EU market by striking a trade deal with the Mercosur trading bloc.

The pace at which negotiations are progressing and the apparent willingness of European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström to offer increased concessions to the South American nations on beef, poultry and pigmeat would suggest that the EU is prepared to sacrifice beef for BMWs.

The impact of any deal on an already destabilised market does not appear to be getting any traction at present and Irish farmers are faced with a double whammy of losing the UK market at the time 70,000 tonnes of extra beef is taken in from Mercosur countries.

With that considered, perhaps it is more a case of the EU not wanting to listen to the Irish problem rather than not understanding it.