Despite the EU and the UK agreeing a two-year transition period which effectively pushes the UK exit date until the end of 2020, the timeline for negotiating the future EU-UK relationship has not changed.

Negotiators on both sides are working to a timeline that will allow EU leaders sign off on a divorce deal at a summit to be held in mid-October of this year.

Meeting this deadline is seen as critical in allowing the European Parliament adequate time to ratify any withdrawal agreement by the March 2019 deadline – two years after UK prime minister Theresa May triggered the withdrawal process under Article 50. All of this means we are just six months – or about 180 days – away from concluding a negotiating process which will shape the future trading relationship between the EU and the UK. It is a negotiation process where not all member states have equal skin in the game. No member state has as much at stake as Ireland and no other sector is as at risk as Irish agri food.

At the end of 2017, an EU report forecast a fall of 0.3% in GDP across the 27 remaining members states as a result of Brexit. However, the impact on Ireland was shown to be a 3.4% reduction in GDP, or the equivalent of €54bn.

Meanwhile, a report commissioned by the Irish Government and produced by Copenhagen Economics showed the potential for a 7% decline in Irish GDP.

Both reports identified the exposure of the Irish agri-food sector to the UK market as the main reason our economy is so exposed to Brexit.

Government strategy has been to support the EU negotiating position, often appearing content with the political equivalent of a pat on the head from Brussels

The EU report forecasts that in the event of the UK defaulting to a WTO trading scenario post-Brexit, Irish food exports to the UK would fall by 70%.

Copenhagen Economics identified the potential for a 50% to 70% decline in Irish beef and dairy exports by 2030 in the wake of a hard Brexit.

It is against this backdrop that we ask if the position adopted by the Government and those representing the agri-food sector adequately reflects what is at stake.

Government strategy

So far, Government strategy has been to support the EU negotiating position, often appearing content with the political equivalent of a pat on the head from Brussels at the expense of holding out for any solid commitment to protect Irish interests. Continuing with such a strategy until October is high-risk.

Is the Government willing to test the EU’s commitment to Ireland in the event that Irish concerns – which run deeper than just solving the issue of a hard border with Northern Ireland – are the only issues preventing a deal with the UK in October?

It is worth pointing out that Ireland cannot act alone in blocking any proposed deal which, to get approval, requires at least 72% of the states representing 65% of the population.

For Ireland to be in a position to block an unfavourable deal, it would need the support of a combination of other member states.

With so little time left in the negotiation process, at what point is the Government going to show its teeth and start really testing the EU’s commitment to protecting Irish interests?

From an agricultural perspective, we need to see solid demands from the Government and not merely soundbites. What measures does it expect the EU to implement to protect the income of Irish farmers in the wake of whatever Brexit deal is achieved?

In a similar vein, farm organisations must review their list of demands. To date, this has largely focused on applying political pressure to ensure that any deal safeguards free access to the UK market at the same time as preserving the value of that market.

UK market

Preserving the value in the UK market post-Brexit is by far the biggest challenge. Will the EU be in a position to force the UK to remove one of its most valuable bargaining chips – its requirement to import £100m worth of food per day – from the negotiating table when striking global trade deals? Again, it is a high-risk strategy.

Clearly there is a need for farm organisations to be demanding a solid commitment from Brussels to implement a suite of measures that will protect Irish farmers’ income in the wake of Brexit.

Brexit has been described both at political and ground level as the biggest threat to face the Irish economy and Irish agriculture in a generation. With just 180 days left to shape the outcome, it is time the Irish response reflected the severity of the issue at hand.

Tillage: Diversification requirements causing havoc for greening

This has been an extraordinarily difficult spring for all farmers but as time marches on, it reduces the number of realistic crop options available to tillage farmers, who are obliged to have a number of different crops planted to comply with greening requirements.

We are now past the sensible planting dates for spring beans and spring wheat and this means two less crop options for those who have to comply with the two- and three-crop rules.

With no prospect of a pickup in the weather for the time being, there has to be serious consideration given to relaxing the obligation for individuals to plant specific minimum percentages of either two or three crops, which is an obligation under the crop diversification requirement of greening.

Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed must give serious consideration to this obligation, given the extraordinary weather circumstances that occurred during the autumn and now the spring planting seasons. This situation is totally outside of the control of farmers.

Fodder: Shortage not a personal failure

I would like to thank Cork farmer Frank O’Mahony for his letter this week (page 28). We hope the details of how he coped with fodder challenges in 2013 gives others confidence. The current fodder issues simply reflect the challenge of trying to run a farm business where you have zero control over one of the biggest variables: the weather. Throughout the paper this week, our specialist team along with Teagasc look at what steps farmers can take. Thankfully, Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed appears to have finally accepted the severity of the challenges at farm level, having convened an emergency stakeholder meeting on Wednesday. It is interesting that farm organisations were not invited to the meeting. There is no doubt farmers will watch the depth of the minister’s commitment closely.

Education: Return of farm apprenticeships welcome

The return of apprenticeships in farming following the demise of the scheme in the late 1990s is very welcome. Some of the best farmers in Ireland trained under the previous scheme and the practical element of working on some of the top farms around the country really stood to these farmers.

Speaking to farmers who participated, it wasn’t always the case that things were completed by the text book. However, the experience of living and working away from home really helped progression. It’s great to see more options available now for young people to get involved in farming. Well done to all involved.

Dairygold: Farmers to receive return on investment

Dairygold has started to return the first of the loan notes it received from farmers in 2013. In the first tranche, almost €1.7m – which includes €300,000 of interest – will be returned to farmers in the coming weeks.

The five-year investment, which carried an annual interest rate of 4% on top of the Euribor rate, has turned out to be quite attractive given where comparable interest rates were over the period. Thanks to farmer support, this investment also allowed Dairygold to drive ahead with its investment plans ready to process its members expanded milk supply.

Read more

From the tramlines: spring weather continues to delay progress

Dairygold reports solid set of results for 2017