The decades-long growth trend of EU farm production is set end over the coming years, the EU’s Agricultural Outlook report for 2022-2032 has forecast.

The output of beef, milk and grain is expected to take a fall in the next decade due to extensification, climate change and lower EU demand for some foods.

The report suggests that the EU’s rate of self-sufficiency in these farm goods will remain largely unchanged, as lower output will be offset by lower demand.

Dairy

It is expected that environmental policies will see dairy cow numbers fall by around 10% by 2032, meaning the EU will lose cows twice as quick.

The speed at which yields per cow grow is projected to fall by half, further limiting supplies.

These trends will see EU milk production to plateau before contracting “slightly” towards the end of the decade. By then, farmgate milk prices will have settled back to around 45c/l.

A 2% yearly rise in global supplies will be filled by other regions of the world, as the EU will no longer be in a place to contribute to growth as it had over the past 10 years.

Beef

A reduced dairy herd and a 6% fall in the EU’s suckler herd will reduce beef output, while changing consumer preferences and extensification policies will also act to restrict beef sector output over the coming decade.

Low profitability is forecast to remain in beef farming, with prices expected to drop to a medium-term average of €4/kg by 2032.

EU production falls 0.6m tonnes while global beef demand will rise by around 1.3m tonnes as “many countries” seek to fill supply shortfalls.

Coupled payments and certain suckler-friendly eco-scheme options will only “dampen” the decline in the beef sector and not manage to reverse it, the report maintains.

Tillage

The report suggests tillage production will stagnate due to climate change, lower pesticide usage and reduced fertiliser applications.

Barley is likely to see a slight decrease in yields over the coming decade, while wheat is expected to see a marginal lift in yields.

A lower feed demand is expected to result from cuts to livestock numbers and a move towards less extensive farming systems for the livestock farms that remain.

Significant growth is forecast in protein crops, such as beans and soy.

Sheep, pigs and poultry

The outlook for sheep production shows signs of a slight increase, with this rise concentrated in Eastern Europe.

Sheep prices should remain significantly higher than they were pre-pandemic and the gap between EU and Australia/New Zealand prices will continue.

A 1% annual fall in pig production is expected due to a combination of African swine fever (ASF), increasing environmental regulations and “societal criticism” of intensive production systems.

Poultry output is expected to grow, but only at one-tenth of its current pace due to environmental restrictions.

Changing rules and levels of acceptability relating to live exports will act to lower output through this channel at EU level over the coming years.